KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.9
Hit
56.9%
EV+
-1.4%
Edge
+1.9
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
15
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.79
Hit
56.4%
EV+
-2.4%
Edge
+1.8
L10
60%
Rifler
rdnzao
DENDELE vs G2
RISK · OVER 26
BEST OVER · PP 26PP26UD26.5
▲ L5 33.0 · L20 28.2Risk · Edge +1.9 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 26 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
67%
12/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.62
Previous meeting · vs G2
No meeting with G2 in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.8
10/14 hit at 26
Online
22.5
2/4 hit at 26
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm rdnzao is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.619 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (23.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.9
Raw edge
+1.9
Cons. hit
56.9%
EV+
-1.4%
Rating
4.4/10
Exp. rounds
42
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.9%
0 →
Learned
56.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 24-28
All players · Kills
56.4%305 picks
This player
100%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 25% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · 42.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 23% (under 40%) · team 25% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 2.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.3 kills vs line 26.0 (8/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 60%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.3 against a 26.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.9 vs line 26 → +1.9 (7.3%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 42 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 13.4%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.08
HS/Map
8.47
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.67
ADR
76.3
KAST
72.2%
HS%
60.2%
Multi-kill
16.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.6 · KPR 0.645 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Cache)13.3 · KPR 0.688 · 19.3r
Required KPR to clear0.619
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.91
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.05%
Final projected kills27.9
G2 gives up (86 series)-2.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26. Model: 63.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.1%
~23 kills · 35r26.1%
Normal47.8%
~28 kills · 42r57.9%
Close maps15.7%
~30 kills · 45r71.8%
Overtime13.4%
~34 kills · 51r89.4%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 25% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
22.7r
-1% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.3r
+6% KPR here
Total
42r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime13.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Over) · avg 30.3 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Over | 63.1% | |
| 25 Over | 61.2% | |
| 26 Over | 56.9% | OFFERED |
| 27 Over | 51.2% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 47.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 26→26no change
- First seen26Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.02
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
68.1%
K/D
1
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
56.9%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.91
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
66%
K/D
1.13
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.54
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.72
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Legacy | 17 Cache 9-13 | 26 Mirage 17-19 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 15 Ancient 8-13 | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 19 Mirage 13-4 | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 20 Mirage 13-16 | 10 Cache 3-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 12 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Nuke 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 17 Ancient 16-13 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 17 Cache 13-6 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Cache 13-3 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 13 Cache 7-13 | 24 Mirage 12-16 | 37 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 7 Cache 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 24 Inferno 14-16 | 16 Cache 13-9 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 15 Inferno 13-10 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 8 Nuke 13-0 | 13 Anubis 13-3 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ |
