KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.07
Hit
55.3%
EV+
-4.2%
Edge
+1.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.55
Hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+1.6
L10
50%
#48Ranked 48 of 277 on the board

Rifler
bl1x1
ex-RUSTEC vs FORZE Reload
LEAN · OVER 18
BEST OVER · UD 17.5PP18UD17.5SL17.5
▼ L5 17.6 · L20 19.6
Hit rates at 18 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
8/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.63
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
19.6
8/16 hit at 18
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm bl1x1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 19+ HS (~29 kills at 65.3% HS): 0.606 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (18.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.55
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
18
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.4%
-8.7 →
Learned
49.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 16-20
All players · Headshots
57.7%149 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.38) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.4 headshots vs line 18.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 65%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 19.4 against a 18.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 19.55 vs line 18 → +1.55 (8.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 14.9%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
15.03
HS/Map
9.81
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.66
ADR
74.9
KAST
71.9%
HS%
65.3%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)9.8 · KPR 0.662 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)10.6 · KPR 0.713 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.606
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.28
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.23%
Final projected kills31.21
× realistic HS% (65.3%)19.55
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 18. Model: 63.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps18.2%
~16 HS · 38r29.7%
Normal49.8%
~19 HS · 44r53.2%
Close maps17.1%
~21 HS · 49r68.7%
Overtime14.9%
~24 HS · 55r84.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
22.7r
M2 Mirage
22.8r
+8% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32%
Overtime14.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)18.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Over) · avg 19.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Over | 66% | |
| 17 Over | 63.5% | |
| 18 Over | 58.4% | OFFERED |
| 19 Over | 52.3% | below BE |
| 20 Over | 45.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 18→18no change
- First seen18Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
67.4%
K/D
1.05
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.74
HS%
63.3%
K/D
1.09
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
69.6%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
65.7%
K/D
1.01
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.33
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1.08
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Saint Sinners | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 13 Nuke 13-6 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | mellren | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 14 Ancient 13-10 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Metizport | 5 Anubis 7-13 | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Illyrians | 10 Anubis 13-6 | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Butterfly | 9 Dust2 16-13 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | Saint Sinners | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-8 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | mellren | 6 Ancient 8-13 | 12 Cache 13-3 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Enjoy | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | fnatic | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Nemiga | 9 Mirage 9-13 | 11 Cache 6-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Players | 9 Cache 13-7 | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | SPARTA | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Mirage 3-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | UPGRADE | 4 Ancient 5-13 | 6 Nuke 16-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-22 | Just Players | 14 Nuke 12-16 | 9 Mirage 12-16 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Just Players | 15 Nuke 13-10 | 19 Mirage 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | BET-M | 15 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































