KillsBetter playLean
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.61
Hit
65.4%
EV+
+13.4%
Edge
+6.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.34
Hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Edge
+1.8
L10
30%

Rifler
NickelBack
FORZE Reload vs ex-RUSTEC
RISK · OVER 12.5
BEST OVER · UD 11.5PP12.5UD11.5
▼ L5 12.6 · L20 13.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.63
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
13.3
10/20 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm NickelBack is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~28 kills at 46.2% HS): 0.551 KPR over ~49 rounds. His Kills line is 25.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (21.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.34
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Rating
4.7/10
Exp. rounds
49.1
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.3%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
59.8%189 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.08) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.0 headshots vs line 12.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 46%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 12.0 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 14.34 vs line 12.5 → +1.84 (14.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 49.1 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.32
HS/Map
6.62
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.61
ADR
72.3
KAST
72%
HS%
46.2%
Multi-kill
13%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.8 · KPR 0.616 · 24r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.3 · KPR 0.713 · 25.1r
Required KPR to clear0.551
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.12%
Final projected kills32.64
× realistic HS% (46.2%)14.34
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+3.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 69.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.9%
~12 HS · 41r42.9%
Normal51.4%
~14 HS · 49r65.1%
Close maps7.8%
~15 HS · 53r75.3%
Overtime18.9%
~17 HS · 59r86.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
25.1r
+17% KPR here
Total
49.1r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 12.0 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 65.3% | |
| 11.5 Over | 63% | |
| 12.5 Over | 58.3% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 52.8% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 46.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- First seen12.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
19 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.9
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
19.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
43.3%
K/D
1.09
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
39.1%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
42.1%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
8.7
KPR
0.38
HS%
42.3%
K/D
0.58
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.47
HS%
25%
K/D
0.47
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.39
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.47
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nuclear TigeRES | 7 Dust2 13-16 | 2 Anubis 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-23 | FORZE Reload | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 3 Dust2 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | FORZE Reload | 11 Mirage 19-16 | 9 Cache 13-5 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 4 Cache 13-11 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | FORZE Reload | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Cache 13-0 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | FOKUS | 9 Dust2 16-14 | 2 Cache 7-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Players | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-3 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | BRUTE | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | INOX Division | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 2 Inferno 16-12 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-16 | BAKS | 9 Ancient 16-19 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | Color | 3 Inferno 7-13 | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Leo | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 7 Cache 13-6 | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | HAVU | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 12 Mirage 20-19 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Honvéd | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Inner Circle Academy | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | INOX Division | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Color | 13 Dust2 22-19 | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Leo | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 13 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































