KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.78
Hit
59.1%
EV+
+2.3%
Edge
+2.3
L10
20%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.08
Hit
47%
EV+
-18.7%
Edge
+0.1
L10
20%
Rifler
mezii
Vitality vs FUT
RISK · OVER 25.5
BEST OVER · UD 24.5PP25.5UD24.5
▼ L5 20.6 · L20 24.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 25.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.64
Previous meeting · vs FUT
No meeting with FUT in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
25
7/19 hit at 25.5
Online
17
0/1 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm mezii is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.649 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57%) or blowout (30.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.78
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
59.1%
EV+
+2.3%
Rating
4/10
Exp. rounds
39.3
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.1%
0 →
Learned
59.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
55.7%255 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.3% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- Blowout win risk — team 75% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 39.3 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 31% (under 40%) · team 75% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 23.0 kills vs line 25.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 57%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 23.0 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 27.78 vs line 25.5 → +2.28 (8.9%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 20% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 39.3 rounds · 2-0 57% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.3
HS/Map
7
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.59
ADR
66.1
KAST
77.1%
HS%
56.9%
Multi-kill
14.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)12.8 · KPR 0.658 · 19.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)12.9 · KPR 0.666 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.649
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.02
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.49%
Final projected kills25.63
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25.5. Model: 60.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps30.6%
~23 kills · 33r32%
Normal38.6%
~29 kills · 41r73.9%
Close maps25.2%
~30 kills · 42r77.1%
Overtime5.6%
~34 kills · 48r92.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 74.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 75% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Anubis
19.7r
+3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19.6r
+4% KPR here
Total
39.3r
2-0 sweep57%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)30.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Over) · avg 23.0 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Over | 65.6% | |
| 24.5 Over | 62.7% | |
| 25.5 Over | 59.1% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Over | 54.8% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 50.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→25.5no change
- First seen25.5Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
56%
K/D
0.94
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.21
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.17
Cache
7 maps
Kills
9.1
KPR
0.47
HS%
54.7%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
65.5%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
54%
K/D
0.85
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
81.8%
K/D
0.85
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | The MongolZ | 15 Inferno 13-6 | 6 Cache 13-3 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-10 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 8 Cache 13-8 | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 4 Anubis 7-13 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 17 Inferno 13-2 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 14 Anubis 9-13 | 11 Dust2 13-4 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 17 Anubis 13-5 | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 12 Dust2 13-1 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 22 Anubis 13-4 | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 7 Cache 13-5 | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 20 Anubis 11-13 | 18 Nuke 16-14 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Cache 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Lynn Vision | 13 Dust2 13-2 | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | B8 | 18 Mirage 16-12 | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-24 | Liquid | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-19 | Falcons | 12 Anubis 11-13 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | BetBoom | 11 Overpass 13-8 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 23 | W | Under ✗ |
