KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.9
Hit
43.6%
EV+
-24.4%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.49
Hit
40.4%
EV+
-30.1%
Edge
-0.0
L10
60%
#247Ranked 247 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
xertioN
MOUZ vs 9z
RISK · UNDER 30.5
BEST UNDER · PP 30.5PP30.5UD29.5SL29.5
▼ L5 27.4 · L20 31.1Risk · Edge -1.6 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±6.09
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/1 hit · avg 26 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 13-4 · Nuke 13-7 · W
26
Under 30.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.1
10/20 hit at 30.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xertioN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.768 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.9
Raw edge
-1.6
Cons. hit
43.6%
EV+
-24.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.6%
+8.7 →
Learned
52.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.55) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.9 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 54%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.9 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.9 vs line 30.5 → -1.6 (-5.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.55
HS/Map
8.35
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.68
ADR
76.5
KAST
72%
HS%
53.7%
Multi-kill
16%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15.7 · KPR 0.783 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)13.8 · KPR 0.719 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.768
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.85
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.01%
Final projected kills29.55
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 60.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.1%
~24 kills · 33r88.8%
Normal37.1%
~30 kills · 41r58.2%
Close maps16.4%
~31 kills · 43r48.3%
Overtime14.4%
~35 kills · 49r21.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
+7% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
-1% KPR here
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 29.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 35.8% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 39.8% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 43.6% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 49.3% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 54.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
52.5%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.03
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
51%
K/D
0.99
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.6%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
58.5%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.59
HS%
61.1%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 20 Ancient 16-13 | 16 Inferno 12-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 15 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 13-5 | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 14 Cache 13-4 | 14 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 10 Cache 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 10 Cache 8-13 | 30 Mirage 19-16 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 19 Cache 10-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 18 Cache 11-13 | 13 Inferno 13-5 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 20 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 20 Ancient 13-4 | 17 Mirage 13-5 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 10 Cache 13-4 | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 18 Dust2 13-16 | 13 Ancient 5-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 19 Mirage 13-11 | 39 Ancient 19-22 | 58 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 16 Dust2 13-4 | 20 Inferno 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 14 Ancient 6-13 | 16 Nuke 16-12 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































