KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.52
Hit
51.2%
EV+
-11.3%
Edge
-1.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.11
Hit
49.9%
EV+
-13.5%
Edge
-0.9
L10
50%
#145Ranked 145 of 277 on the board

Rifler
EliGe
Liquid vs FUT
RISK · UNDER 31
BEST UNDER · UD 31.5PP31UD31.5SL30.5
▲ L5 34.2 · L20 31.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 31 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
7/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.87
Previous meeting · vs FUT
No meeting with FUT in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.3
7/14 hit at 31
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm EliGE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.795 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.52
Raw edge
-1.5
Cons. hit
51.2%
EV+
-11.3%
Rating
2/10
Exp. rounds
39
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.2%
-8.7 →
Learned
42.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 29-33
All players · Kills
43.7%215 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.52) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.9 kills vs line 31.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 58%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.9 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.52 vs line 31 → -1.48 (-4.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
15.64
HS/Map
9.07
K/D
1.16
KPR
0.74
ADR
81.4
KAST
72.4%
HS%
58%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)15.3 · KPR 0.778 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)12.2 · KPR 0.657 · 18.9r
Required KPR to clear0.795
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.94%
Final projected kills27.52
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 31. Model: 59.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.1%
~25 kills · 33r86.5%
Normal46.6%
~32 kills · 42r41.5%
Close maps2.7%
~32 kills · 42r43.4%
Overtime10.6%
~36 kills · 48r17.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
20.1r
+12% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.9r
-6% KPR here
Total
39r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Under) · avg 31.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Under | 39.8% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 47.4% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 51.2% | OFFERED |
| 32 Under | 56.5% | below BE |
| 33 Under | 60.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31→31no change
- First seen31Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.87
HS%
56.9%
K/D
1.45
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.9%
K/D
0.98
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
68.1%
K/D
1.17
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.85
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.46
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.97
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
22
KPR
0.76
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 22 Ancient 13-16 | 22 Inferno 16-12 | 44 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 19 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 31 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 15 Inferno 7-13 | 11 Cache 4-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 24 Nuke 10-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 18 Mirage 13-11 | 11 Cache 13-2 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 8 Dust2 0-13 | 21 Inferno 13-8 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 14 Inferno 13-4 | 20 Anubis 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 16 Cache 16-13 | 11 Anubis 13-2 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 17 Inferno 13-3 | 14 Cache 13-4 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 17 Anubis 13-6 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 22 Cache 13-9 | 20 Inferno 13-10 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 18 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































