KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.6
Hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.6%
Edge
-0.4
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.38
Hit
52.6%
EV+
-9.0%
Edge
-0.6
L10
80%
#134Ranked 134 of 277 on the board

Rifler
snow
paiN vs BESTIA
RISK · UNDER 15
BEST UNDER · PP 15PP15UD13.5
▼ L5 12.8 · L20 14.3Risk · Edge -0.6 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.48
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.6
11/16 hit at 15
Online
17
1/4 hit at 15
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm snow is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 49.7% HS): below 0.658 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.38
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
52.6%
EV+
-9.0%
Rating
3.8/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
15
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.6%
-8.7 →
Learned
43.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13-17
All players · Headshots
38.6%241 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.06) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.4 headshots vs line 15.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 50%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.4 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.38 vs line 15 → -0.62 (-4.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 80% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.38
HS/Map
7.15
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.64
ADR
74.4
KAST
75%
HS%
49.7%
Multi-kill
15.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.5 · KPR 0.679 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.5 · KPR 0.651 · 23.4r
Required KPR to clear0.658
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.66%
Final projected kills30.31
× realistic HS% (49.7%)14.38
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15. Model: 55.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~12 HS · 39r74.8%
Normal44.8%
~14 HS · 46r52.9%
Close maps18.6%
~15 HS · 49r44%
Overtime12.2%
~17 HS · 55r28.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Cache
22.5r
+6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23.4r
+1% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Under) · avg 12.4 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
| 13 Under | 38% | below BE |
| 14 Under | 43.2% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 52.6% | OFFERED |
| 16 Under | 57.3% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 60.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 15→15no change
- First seen15Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.69
HS%
46.3%
K/D
1.06
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.65
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.59
HS%
57.8%
K/D
0.8
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
49%
K/D
1
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
54.7%
K/D
0.98
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 11 Cache 13-8 | 11 Dust2 22-18 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 5 Inferno 3-13 | 12 Anubis 16-14 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 3 Cache 7-13 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 2 Inferno 2-13 | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 3 Anubis 4-13 | 3 Cache 11-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 6 Cache 13-9 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 10 Cache 13-7 | 4 Dust2 13-3 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Anubis 13-6 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | BIG | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Cache 8-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | HOTU | 10 Cache 11-13 | 1 Nuke 4-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Natus Vincere | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 22 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | FURIA | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | The MongolZ | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Wildcard | 10 Inferno 12-16 | 5 Nuke 13-3 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-31 | Astralis | 12 Nuke 13-10 | 12 Inferno 17-19 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 14 Mirage 16-14 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gentle Mates | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-16 | 3DMAX | 3 Cache 10-13 | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































