KillsNeutral
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.36
Hit
52.2%
EV+
-9.6%
Edge
-3.6
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playNeutral
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.12
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Edge
-2.9
L10
60%
Rifler
Lack1
FORZE Reload vs ex-RUSTEC
NEUTRAL · UNDER 29
≈ L5 26.0 · L20 26.1
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.78
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
26.1
12/20 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Lack1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.671 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.36
Raw edge
-3.6
Cons. hit
52.2%
EV+
-9.6%
Rating
2.3/10
Exp. rounds
43.2
Line
29
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
52.2%
0 →
Learned
52.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
44.9%452 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Game script fits: team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.3 kills vs line 29.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 56%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 24.3 against a 29.0 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.36 vs line 29 → -3.64 (-12.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 43.2 rounds · 2-0 63.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.05
HS/Map
7.28
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.59
ADR
67.4
KAST
68.8%
HS%
55.7%
Multi-kill
13%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)13.1 · KPR 0.611 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.3 · KPR 0.571 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.671
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.68%
Final projected kills25.36
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+2.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29. Model: 66.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~21 kills · 36r83.1%
Normal57.5%
~26 kills · 44r64.6%
Close maps10.5%
~27 kills · 46r59.6%
Overtime7.8%
~31 kills · 52r43.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 1:00 PM CTOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.6r
+8% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
+1% KPR here
Total
43.2r
2-0 sweep63.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 24.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Under | 47% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 49.6% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 52.2% | OFFERED |
| 30 Under | 56.4% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 58.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29→offno change
- Pulled29Oct 25, 01:00 PM
- Back on board29 → 29Oct 25, 01:00 PM
- Pulled29Oct 25, 01:00 PM
- First seen29Oct 24, 09:22 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.64
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.92
Cache
7 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.53
HS%
64.8%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.59
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.85
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.57
HS%
46.6%
K/D
0.79
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nuclear TigeRES | 18 Dust2 13-16 | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 10 Ancient 6-13 | 2 Cache 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 21 Ancient 13-7 | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 20 Mirage 19-16 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 22 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 15 Cache 13-9 | 14 Anubis 16-13 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-0 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 9 Anubis 6-13 | 2 Dust2 0-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Dust2 13-5 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Mirage 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 16 Anubis 6-13 | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 14 Anubis 13-7 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 23 Mirage 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✓ |
