KillsBetter playLean
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.2
Hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.7%
Edge
-2.3
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.38
Hit
42.6%
EV+
-26.2%
Edge
-1.1
L10
40%
#65Ranked 65 of 277 on the board

Rifler
ropz
Vitality vs The MongolZ
LEAN · UNDER 30.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP30.5UD30.5SL30.5
▼ L5 28.2 · L20 29.8LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.77
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.8
11/20 hit at 30.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ropz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.807 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.2
Raw edge
-2.3
Cons. hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.7%
Rating
5.2/10
Exp. rounds
37.8
Line
30.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
56.8%
-8.7 →
Learned
48.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.2) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.6 kills vs line 30.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 54%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.6 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.2 vs line 30.5 → -2.3 (-7.5%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.8 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.88
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
1.19
KPR
0.72
ADR
76.2
KAST
76.2%
HS%
53.9%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)13.9 · KPR 0.744 · 19.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.3 · KPR 0.778 · 18.7r
Required KPR to clear0.807
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.91%
Final projected kills28.2
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 72.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.6%
~24 kills · 32r91%
Normal39.7%
~30 kills · 40r56.1%
Close maps18.9%
~30 kills · 40r53.6%
Overtime7.8%
~35 kills · 46r25.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
19.1r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.7r
Total
37.8r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 28.6 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 39.3% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 47.5% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 56.8% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 60.5% | |
| 32.5 Under | 63.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.24
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
54%
K/D
1.14
Cache
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.75
HS%
51.2%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.8
HS%
65.5%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
62.3%
K/D
1.52
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Cache 13-10 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 13 Cache 13-8 | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 16 Anubis 7-13 | 13 Cache 13-7 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 12 Inferno 13-2 | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 13 Dust2 13-4 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 16 Anubis 13-5 | 10 Nuke 5-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 16 Dust2 13-1 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 15 Anubis 13-4 | 22 Inferno 11-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 16 Cache 13-5 | 16 Anubis 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Dust2 13-5 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 23 Mirage 13-6 | 20 Dust2 13-9 | 43 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 16 Dust2 11-13 | 17 Mirage 7-13 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 23 Cache 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 20 Nuke 16-14 | 16 Mirage 9-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 11 Dust2 13-2 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 14 Anubis 8-13 | 22 Cache 13-16 | 36 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 9 Anubis 11-13 | 23 Nuke 16-14 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 18 Cache 13-6 | 31 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































