KillsBetter playRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.86
Hit
53.8%
EV+
-6.9%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.49
Hit
45.6%
EV+
-21.0%
Edge
-0.5
L10
30%

Rifler
Omichella
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
RISK · UNDER 14
PP14
≈ L5 14.8 · L20 14.8Risk · Edge -0.5 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 42% hit
Hit rates at 14 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
30%
6/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.13
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 10 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
10
Under 14 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13
2/5 hit at 14
Online
15.3
4/15 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Omichella is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 13 HS or fewer (under ~24 kills at 57.8% HS): below 0.594 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.49
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
45.6%
EV+
-21.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
14
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.6%
0 →
Learned
45.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 12-16
All players · Headshots
42.7%241 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 30.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 30.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.93) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.9 headshots vs line 14.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 58%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.9 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.49 vs line 14 → -0.51 (-3.6%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.75
HS/Map
7.38
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.57
ADR
60.1
KAST
69.7%
HS%
57.8%
Multi-kill
13.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)5.5 · KPR 0.488 · 19.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.5 · KPR 0.636 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.594
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.01
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.74%
Final projected kills22.38
× realistic HS% (57.8%)13.49
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14. Model: 52.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.4%
~11 HS · 35r73.6%
Normal28.8%
~15 HS · 44r39.7%
Close maps23%
~15 HS · 44r41%
Overtime7.8%
~17 HS · 50r23.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 29.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 30% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
19.9r
-9% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
+18% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Under) · avg 13.9 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Under | 34.2% | below BE |
| 13 Under | 39.8% | below BE |
| 14 Under | 45.6% | OFFERED |
| 15 Under | 53.1% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 57.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→14no change
- First seen14Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.5
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
54.6%
K/D
1.13
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
54%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.1%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.85
HS%
72.7%
K/D
1.83
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 2 Dust2 6-13 | 8 Anubis 13-11 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 12 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 16 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Rooster | 7 Anubis 6-13 | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Abyssal | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Dust2 12-16 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 2 Ancient 4-13 | 2 Dust2 3-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Inferno 1-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-31 | Arcade | 9 Nuke 13-3 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 6 Nuke 5-13 | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Rooster | 7 Anubis 13-4 | 12 Nuke 19-15 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | LFO 8 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 10 Dust2 13-3 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 11 Ancient 13-1 | 7 Anubis 13-8 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-12 | Mindfreak | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-11 | Abyssal | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 9 Anubis 0-1 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Mindfreak | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 6 Anubis 13-4 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Abyssal | 8 Mirage 13-0 | 4 Dust2 13-11 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Time Waves | 11 Inferno 19-17 | 7 Nuke 13-3 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-19 | FlyQuest | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 5 Anubis 5-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |









































































































































































