KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.42
Hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.7%
Edge
+0.9
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.13
Hit
48.5%
EV+
-16.0%
Edge
+0.6
L10
30%

AWPer
aidKiT
Brute vs BakS eSports
RISK · OVER 10.5
▲ L5 12.6 · L20 10.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 10.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.5
Previous meeting · vs BakS eSports
No meeting with BakS eSports in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
9
2/10 hit at 10.5
Online · this match
11.7
5/10 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm aidKiT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 50.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~34 kills at 32.6% HS): 0.739 KPR over ~44 rounds. His Kills line is 32.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (29%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
11.13
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
48.5%
EV+
-16.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.5%
0 →
Learned
48.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
54.2%120 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (10.51) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.4 headshots vs line 10.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 33%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 10.4 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.13 vs line 10.5 → +0.63 (6.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.85
HS/Map
5.17
K/D
1.29
KPR
0.78
ADR
76.3
KAST
76.6%
HS%
32.6%
Multi-kill
21.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.1 · KPR 0.742 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.4 · KPR 0.745 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.739
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.42
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.58%
Final projected kills32.23
× realistic HS% (32.6%)11.13
BakS eSports gives up (31 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 10.5. Model: 54.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29%
~9 HS · 37r33.8%
Normal44.3%
~11 HS · 44r57.6%
Close maps12.3%
~12 HS · 47r63.9%
Overtime14.4%
~13 HS · 53r77.8%
Match context
Oct 23, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 50.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 51% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.2r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.4r
-4% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Over) · avg 10.4 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Over | 63.3% | |
| 9.5 Over | 56.7% | below BE |
| 10.5 Over | 48.5% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Over | 42% | below BE |
| 12.5 Over | 36% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→offno change
- Pulled10.5Oct 23, 05:12 PM
- Back on board10.5 → 10.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- Pulled10.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 22, 05:02 PM
Map stats
Mirage
13 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
28.9%
K/D
1.28
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
35.5%
K/D
1.32
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
32.3%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
37%
K/D
1.47
Cache
4 maps
Kills
19.8
KPR
0.84
HS%
29.1%
K/D
1.49
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
40%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.67
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 5 Nuke 13-4 | 3 Mirage 3-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 4 Mirage 13-11 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 6 Inferno 19-16 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 12 Inferno 13-6 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 9 Inferno 16-13 | 7 Dust2 13-16 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 2 Mirage 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 1 Mirage 13-1 | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 2 Dust2 13-9 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 3 Inferno 10-13 | 5 Cache 16-12 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 3 Mirage 11-13 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 7 Anubis 16-14 | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 5 Cache 13-11 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 6 Cache 7-13 | 3 Anubis 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 4 Anubis 13-8 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 11 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 5 Mirage 3-13 | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 2 Dust2 5-13 | 4 Mirage 13-5 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 7 Cache 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✓ |










































































































































































