KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33
Hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Edge
+0.5
L10
30%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.45
Hit
44.1%
EV+
-23.5%
Edge
+0.5
L10
30%

AWPer
forsyy
Metizport vs BAKS
RISK · OVER 32.5
PP32.5
▼ L5 32.0 · L20 33.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 32.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
39%
7/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±8.34
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
27.3
0/4 hit at 32.5
Online · this match
35.7
7/14 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm forsyy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.716 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73.5%) or blowout (14.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
32.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.1%
0 →
Learned
45.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
55%149 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 49.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 38.9% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 38.9% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (33.43) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.1 kills vs line 32.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 34%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 30.1 against a 32.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 33 vs line 32.5 → +0.5 (1.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 73.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.92
HS/Map
5.72
K/D
1.25
KPR
0.67
ADR
68.3
KAST
76.1%
HS%
33.8%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)16.9 · KPR 0.704 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Inferno)16.6 · KPR 0.763 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.716
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.24
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.57%
Final projected kills33.43
BAKS gives up (31 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32.5. Model: 49.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps14.9%
~28 kills · 38r23.1%
Normal56%
~32 kills · 44r42.9%
Close maps8.4%
~35 kills · 49r62.7%
Overtime20.7%
~40 kills · 55r81%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 67.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 67% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
23.8r
+5% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.6r
+14% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep73.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)14.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Over) · avg 30.1 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Over | 52.8% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 49.9% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 45.1% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Over | 42.3% | below BE |
| 34.5 Over | 37.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
Line movement
first 32.5→32.5no change
- First seen32.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
33.5%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.8
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.33
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
29.1%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
18.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.24
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.48
HS%
45.2%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
37.1%
K/D
1.25
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 27 Cache 16-14 | 24 Nuke 17-19 | 51 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 8 Cache 13-3 | 16 Nuke 13-2 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 14 Nuke 13-9 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 19 Nuke 13-11 | 15 Mirage 8-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 18 Nuke 13-9 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 14 Mirage 13-6 | 13 Inferno 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 9 Nuke 8-13 | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 25 Mirage 14-16 | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 11 Cache 13-6 | 13 Nuke 14-16 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 19 Inferno 13-11 | 23 Mirage 16-14 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 45 Nuke 25-23 | 21 Ancient 13-11 | 66 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 27 Inferno 16-13 | 32 Cache 16-13 | 59 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 16 Inferno 8-13 | 14 Nuke 13-9 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 8 Cache 9-13 | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 25 Inferno 13-7 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Bushido Wildcats | 16 Mirage 9-13 | 12 Nuke 4-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | BO |











































































































































































