KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.33
Hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.7%
Edge
-0.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.51
Hit
56.7%
EV+
-1.8%
Edge
+1.0
L10
60%

Rifler
clax
K27 vs Virtus.pro
RISK · OVER 16.5
▲ L5 18.0 · L20 16.4Risk · Edge +1.0 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
High
±5.82
Previous meeting · vs Virtus.pro
1/2 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-11 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Cache 10-13 · Dust2 8-13 · L
13
Under 16.5 ✗
2026-09-09 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Anubis 13-5 · Cache 14-16 · Split
19
Over 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
14.8
2/4 hit at 16.5
Online · this match
16.9
8/15 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm clax is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~28 kills at 59.9% HS): 0.618 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (20.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.51
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
56.7%
EV+
-1.8%
Rating
4.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.6
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.7%
+8.3 →
Learned
65%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
58.5%258 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.6% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.6% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.3) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.5 headshots vs line 16.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 60%. Next: vs Virtus.pro, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 17.5 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.51 vs line 16.5 → +1.01 (6.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.6 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 3.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.71
HS/Map
8.21
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.68
ADR
77.3
KAST
68.4%
HS%
59.9%
Multi-kill
17.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)8.2 · KPR 0.607 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Nuke)9.1 · KPR 0.703 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.618
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.16
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.96%
Final projected kills28.88
× realistic HS% (59.9%)17.51
Virtus.pro gives up (37 series)+5.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 56.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.4%
~15 HS · 38r33.6%
Normal64.8%
~18 HS · 46r57.5%
Close maps11.3%
~19 HS · 48r62.6%
Overtime3.5%
~21 HS · 54r76.3%
Match context
Oct 23, 01:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Cache
22.9r
-11% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
44.6r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime3.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 17.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 62.1% | |
| 15.5 Over | 59.8% | |
| 16.5 Over | 56.7% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 52.9% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 44.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 23, 01:25 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 23, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Cache
11 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.59
HS%
57%
K/D
0.86
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
66.4%
K/D
1.14
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.59
HS%
56.5%
K/D
1.01
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
49.4%
K/D
0.87
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
19.3
KPR
0.92
HS%
69%
K/D
1.76
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.05
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | fnatic | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Mirage 5-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Metizport | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Eternal Fire | 15 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | SINNERS | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Ancient 10-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | ex-RUBY | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Cache 13-11 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | EYEBALLERS | 4 Nuke 13-7 | 4 Anubis 13-9 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | GamerLegion | 6 Cache 10-13 | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Virtus.pro | 6 Cache 10-13 | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Nemiga | 25 Anubis 13-10 | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | HEROIC | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 7 Cache 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | WW | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Cache 13-6 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Virtus.pro | 11 Anubis 13-5 | 8 Cache 14-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-08 | LP | 1 Ancient 13-5 | 7 Mirage 13-8 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | MIBR | 9 Cache 13-6 | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | GamerLegion | 5 Cache 4-13 | 13 Nuke 13-5 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 7 Cache 9-13 | 3 Ancient 1-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | MIBR | 9 Cache 10-13 | 11 Nuke 5-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | BO |










































































































































































