KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.54
Hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.6%
Edge
-3.0
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.76
Hit
49.7%
EV+
-13.9%
Edge
-0.7
L10
50%

Rifler
koala
DENDELE vs Legacy
RISK · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5SL14.5
≈ L5 15.8 · L20 15.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.12
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.8
5/13 hit at 14.5
Online
13
4/5 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm koala is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 53.6% HS): below 0.668 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.76
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
49.7%
EV+
-13.9%
Rating
1.3/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.7%
-8.7 →
Learned
41%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.89) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.4 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 54%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.4 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.76 vs line 14.5 → -0.74 (-5.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.67
HS/Map
7.86
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.7
ADR
75.5
KAST
73.9%
HS%
53.6%
Multi-kill
16.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.9 · KPR 0.603 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)6 · KPR 0.592 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.668
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.63%
Final projected kills24.05
× realistic HS% (53.6%)13.76
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 55.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.8%
~12 HS · 34r76.1%
Normal51.7%
~14 HS · 41r58.2%
Close maps13.5%
~15 HS · 43r51.5%
Overtime11%
~17 HS · 49r36.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-8% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.1r
-10% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)24.5%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 16.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 36.6% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 41.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 49.7% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 54.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 57.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.62
HS%
49.6%
K/D
1.09
Cache
8 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
55.8%
K/D
0.95
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
52.8%
K/D
1.39
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.7%
K/D
1
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.83
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.23
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 8-13 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 3 Mirage 13-4 | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 3 Cache 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 17 Inferno 13-7 | 8 Anubis 9-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Ancient 16-13 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 4 Cache 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 7 Cache 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 8 Cache 7-13 | 4 Mirage 12-16 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 11 Ancient 8-13 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 11 Inferno 14-16 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 7 Inferno 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 9 Nuke 13-0 | 2 Anubis 13-3 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 4 Anubis 13-6 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 7 Cache 13-11 | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































