KillsLean
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.88
Hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Edge
+2.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.98
Hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Edge
+1.5
L10
60%

Rifler
nbqq
Brute vs BakS eSports
RISK · OVER 13.5
≈ L5 15.0 · L20 15.2Risk · Edge +1.5 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.28
Previous meeting · vs BakS eSports
No meeting with BakS eSports in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
13.1
5/10 hit at 13.5
Online · this match
17.3
8/10 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm nbqq is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 50.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~28 kills at 49.8% HS): 0.622 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (29%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.98
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Rating
5.4/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.3%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
60.7%224 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.97) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.6 headshots vs line 13.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 50%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.6 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 14.98 vs line 13.5 → +1.48 (11.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.25
HS/Map
7.6
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.71
ADR
81.4
KAST
71.5%
HS%
49.8%
Multi-kill
17.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.1 · KPR 0.678 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.9 · KPR 0.708 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.622
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.58%
Final projected kills30.06
× realistic HS% (49.8%)14.98
BakS eSports gives up (31 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 59.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29%
~13 HS · 37r39%
Normal44.3%
~15 HS · 44r57.5%
Close maps12.3%
~16 HS · 47r62.5%
Overtime14.4%
~18 HS · 53r74.1%
Match context
Oct 23, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 50.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.2r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.4r
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 14.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Over | 63.7% | |
| 12.5 Over | 62.1% | |
| 13.5 Over | 58.3% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Over | 55.1% | below BE |
| 15.5 Over | 51.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 13.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 23, 05:12 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- Moved up14.5 → 15.5Oct 23, 03:10 PM
- Moved up13.5 → 14.5Oct 23, 02:44 AM
- First seen13.5Oct 22, 05:02 PM
Map stats
Mirage
13 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
46.3%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
47.3%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.99
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.85
HS%
62.9%
K/D
1.13
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.73
HS%
37.5%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 3 Nuke 13-4 | 4 Mirage 3-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 7 Anubis 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 8 Mirage 13-16 | 13 Inferno 19-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 6 Inferno 13-6 | 7 Mirage 13-5 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 9 Inferno 16-13 | 9 Dust2 13-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 10 Anubis 10-13 | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 7 Mirage 13-1 | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 2 Mirage 6-13 | 3 Dust2 13-9 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 2 Cache 16-12 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 15 Anubis 16-14 | 4 Mirage 13-8 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Anubis 13-8 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 9 Cache 7-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 8 Anubis 13-8 | 8 Dust2 13-4 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 7 Mirage 13-4 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 4 Mirage 3-13 | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 4 Mirage 13-5 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Cache 13-9 | 20 | W | Over ✓ |







































































































































































