KillsRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.71
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.3%
Edge
-0.8
L10
71%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.5
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.9%
Edge
-2.0
L10
71%

AWPer
sL1m3
STATE vs overTIME
LEAN · UNDER 11.5
STAND-IN? · Altekz
Hit rates at 11.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
71%
5/7
L20
71%
5/7
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.92
Previous meeting · vs overTIME
1/1 hit · avg 10 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown
Anubis 13-3 · Nuke 13-1 · W
10
Under 11.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
10
1/1 hit at 11.5
Online · this match
9.3
4/6 hit at 11.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm sL1m3 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer (under ~39 kills at 30.8% HS): below 0.86 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.5
Raw edge
-2.0
Cons. hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
11.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.8%
-8.7 →
Learned
50.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
40.9%132 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 75.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Big enough sample: 7 recent series (need 8+)
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 7 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 71.4% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.71) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 7 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.4 headshots vs line 11.5 (2/7 over). KPR 0.71, HS 31%. Next: vs overTIME, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 9.4 against a 11.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (7 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 9.5 vs line 11.5 → -2 (-17.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 71.4% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.9%
Performance (last 14 maps)
Kills/Map
15.29
HS/Map
4.71
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.71
ADR
69.5
KAST
72.8%
HS%
30.8%
Multi-kill
18.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)5.1 · KPR 0.702 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)4.6 · KPR 0.771 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.86
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.82
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills31.53
× realistic HS% (30.8%)9.5
overTIME gives up (10 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 11.5. Model: 75.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.3%
~8 HS · 37r88.4%
Normal33.7%
~10 HS · 44r73.9%
Close maps32.1%
~10 HS · 46r67.6%
Overtime7.9%
~12 HS · 52r52.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
23.8r
-1% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
+8% KPR here
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime7.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
7 series · line 11.5 (Under) · avg 9.4 · hit 5/7 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
| 9.5 Under | 42.8% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 53.9% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 58.8% | OFFERED |
| 12.5 Under | 61.9% | |
| 13.5 Under | 65.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11
Line movement
first 11.5→offno change
- Pulled11.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- First seen11.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.7
HS%
29.6%
K/D
1.08
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.22
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
31%
K/D
1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.82
HS%
39.3%
K/D
1.56
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
23.1%
K/D
0.79
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.73
HS%
18.8%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 6 Anubis 13-3 | 4 Nuke 13-1 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | HOTU | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | G2 Ares | 3 Ancient 13-9 | 7 Cache 15-19 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Famalicão | 5 Inferno 10-13 | 3 Cache 13-11 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Illyrians | 2 Mirage 11-13 | 2 Cache 13-11 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 4 Inferno 9-13 | 4 Nuke 13-10 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | KAMUI | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ |









































































































































































