KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.51
Hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.3%
Edge
+0.0
L10
57%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.65
Hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.4%
Edge
+1.1
L10
71%

Rifler
Zanto
STATE vs overTIME
RISK · OVER 27.5
Risk · Edge +0.0 far below ±3.0STAND-IN? · Altekz
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
57%
4/7
L20
57%
4/7
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.83
Previous meeting · vs overTIME
1/1 hit · avg 28 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown
Anubis 13-3 · Nuke 13-1 · W
28
Over 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
28
1/1 hit at 27.5
Online · this match
27.8
3/6 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Zanto is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.634 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (26.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.51
Raw edge
+0.0
Cons. hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.3%
Rating
3.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.4%
-8.7 →
Learned
43.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
55.9%331 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Big enough sample: 7 recent series (need 8+)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 57.1% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 7 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 57.1% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.12) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 7 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.9 kills vs line 27.5 (4/7 over). KPR 0.65, HS 61%. Next: vs overTIME, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 27.9 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (7 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.51 vs line 27.5 → +0.01 (0.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 57.1% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.9%
Performance (last 14 maps)
Kills/Map
13.93
HS/Map
8.43
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.65
ADR
75.9
KAST
81.4%
HS%
60.5%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)14.6 · KPR 0.619 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)12.5 · KPR 0.645 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.634
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.37
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills27.12
overTIME gives up (10 series)+7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 50% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.3%
~23 kills · 37r21.1%
Normal33.7%
~28 kills · 44r49.8%
Close maps32.1%
~29 kills · 46r60.3%
Overtime7.9%
~33 kills · 52r79.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
23.8r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime7.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
7 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 27.9 · hit 4/7 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 59.3% | |
| 26.5 Over | 57.1% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 52.4% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 47.3% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 44.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- First seen27.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.64
HS%
50%
K/D
1.06
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
73.1%
K/D
1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.5
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.62
HS%
67.9%
K/D
0.8
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.86
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 14 Anubis 13-3 | 14 Nuke 13-1 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | HOTU | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 13 Anubis 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | G2 Ares | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 21 Cache 15-19 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Famalicão | 13 Inferno 10-13 | 14 Cache 13-11 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Illyrians | 15 Mirage 11-13 | 16 Cache 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 13 Inferno 9-13 | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | KAMUI | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































