KillsRisk
Line
22.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.69
Hit
56.7%
EV+
-1.8%
Edge
+2.2
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.43
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.6%
Edge
+1.9
L10
80%
#26Ranked 26 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Zero
TYLOO vs Team Spirit
LEAN · OVER 12.5
BEST OVER · PP 12.5PP12.5UD13.5SL12.5
▲ L5 17.6 · L20 15.0
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
81%
13/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.75
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.7
10/11 hit at 12.5
Online
13.4
3/5 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Zero is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 10.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~23 kills at 56.6% HS): 0.595 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (67.5%) or blowout (41.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.43
Raw edge
+1.9
Cons. hit
61%
EV+
+5.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
37.1
Line
12.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61%
+7.9 →
Learned
68.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
59.8%189 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 68% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 10% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 81.2% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 68% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.07) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.1 headshots vs line 12.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 57%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.1 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 14.43 vs line 12.5 → +1.93 (15.4%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 37.1 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
13.25
HS/Map
7.5
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.65
ADR
73.4
KAST
69.3%
HS%
56.6%
Multi-kill
17.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.6 · KPR 0.674 · 18r
Map 2 (Ancient)6.4 · KPR 0.616 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.595
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.89
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-3.31%
Final projected kills23.1
× realistic HS% (56.6%)14.43
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 69.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41.6%
~12 HS · 32r46.4%
Normal46.4%
~16 HS · 41r79.3%
Close maps10.6%
~16 HS · 41r78.3%
Overtime1.4%
~18 HS · 47r90.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 10.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 10% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
18r
+10% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.1r
+1% KPR here
Total
37.1r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 15.1 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 65.6% | |
| 11.5 Over | 63.6% | |
| 12.5 Over | 61% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 53.1% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 45.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- First seen12.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
51.1%
K/D
1.3
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.65
HS%
55.9%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.01
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
71.6%
K/D
0.99
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
52.4%
K/D
0.81
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.9
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 3 Cache 7-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 12 Anubis 7-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Ancient 4-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 12 Inferno 13-2 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 5 Inferno 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 6 Ancient 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 5 Mirage 13-1 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 7 Nuke 9-13 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































