KillsBetter playRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.5
Hit
47.4%
EV+
-17.9%
Edge
-1.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.41
Hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.2%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%

Rifler
yeda
Grêmio vs Yawara Esports
RISK · UNDER 24.5
≈ L5 25.6 · L20 26.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
High
±9.55
Previous meeting · vs Yawara Esports
1/2 hit · avg 25.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-08 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 3
Nuke 16-19 · Mirage 10-13 · L
36
Over 24.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
Nuke 9-13 · Mirage 13-11 · Split
15
Under 24.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
26.6
9/20 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm yeda is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 31.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: below 0.588 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.5
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
47.4%
EV+
-17.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.4%
-1.1 →
Learned
46.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
41.3%138 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (22.6) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.7 kills vs line 24.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 63%. Next: vs Yawara Esports, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 27.7 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.5 vs line 24.5 → -1 (-4.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.32
HS/Map
8.4
K/D
0.85
KPR
0.56
ADR
63.4
KAST
67.6%
HS%
63%
Multi-kill
12.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)11.3 · KPR 0.533 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)11.3 · KPR 0.562 · 20.3r
Required KPR to clear0.588
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.82
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.96%
Final projected kills22.6
Yawara Esports gives up (52 series)+7.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 24.5. Model: 54.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.6%
~20 kills · 35r74.3%
Normal35.2%
~23 kills · 41r60.8%
Close maps24.8%
~25 kills · 45r51.6%
Overtime14.4%
~29 kills · 51r37.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 31.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 32% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
21.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
20.3r
+7% KPR here
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 27.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Under | 38.4% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 42.9% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 47.4% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Under | 49.9% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 54.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→offno change
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Back on board24.5 → 24.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
63.6%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.58
HS%
67%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.49
HS%
67.6%
K/D
0.66
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.55
HS%
60.3%
K/D
0.79
Dust2
2 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.58
HS%
60.5%
K/D
0.9
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Low Cortisol BR | 17 Mirage 13-3 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | JOGA DE TERNO | 11 Inferno 13-5 | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Los Niños | 10 Mirage 9-13 | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | BORRACHEIROS | 13 Inferno 10-13 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Yawara | 22 Nuke 16-19 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 36 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | Galorys | 15 Inferno 13-11 | 28 Ancient 28-25 | 43 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Galorys | 24 Inferno 16-19 | 19 Ancient 9-13 | 43 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-30 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 20 Cache 17-19 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | Procyon | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 4 Nuke 3-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Yawara | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | your end | 21 Cache 13-7 | 10 Ancient 13-1 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Isurus | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Cache 7-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ALKA | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 17 Ancient 10-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Keyd Stars | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | MEIA NOITE | 14 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | paiN Academy | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | ODDIK | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 5 Cache 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Sementes do Mal | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 11 Mirage 13-2 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | MEIA NOITE | 16 Inferno 13-10 | 25 Dust2 20-22 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-11 | cobblemon | 25 Mirage 16-14 | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | OT |









































































































































































