HeadshotsLean
Line
14
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.37
Hit
54.6%
EV+
-5.4%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%
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Rifler · IGL
buda
BESTIA vs Imperial
LEAN · UNDER 14
▼ L5 13.2 · L20 13.9LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 14 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
33%
1/3
Volatility
Low
±3.98
Previous meeting · vs Imperial
1/3 hit · avg 14.3 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 13-7 · Mirage 13-7 · W
19
Over 14 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 13-10 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
10
Under 14 ✓
2026-08-15 · BetBoom Storm 4
Nuke 10-13 · Inferno 13-9 · Split
14
Under 14 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.5
5/11 hit at 14
Online
14.4
5/9 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm buda is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 13 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 50% HS): below 0.698 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.37
Raw edge
-1.6
Cons. hit
54.6%
EV+
-5.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.1
Line
14
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
54.6%
-5.5 →
Learned
49.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12-16
All players · Headshots
39.4%216 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.5 headshots vs line 14.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 50%. Next: vs Imperial, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.5 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.37 vs line 14 → -1.63 (-11.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.1 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.95
HS/Map
6.97
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.62
ADR
72.4
KAST
68.1%
HS%
50%
Multi-kill
14.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.3 · KPR 0.62 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.7 · KPR 0.586 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.698
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.19
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.65%
Final projected kills24.04
× realistic HS% (50%)12.37
Imperial gives up (59 series)-10.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14. Model: 65.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~10 HS · 34r82.1%
Normal57.6%
~13 HS · 41r61.4%
Close maps8.3%
~13 HS · 43r54.9%
Overtime10%
~15 HS · 49r36.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
+7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.7r
+1% KPR here
Total
40.1r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Under) · avg 13.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Under | 41% | below BE |
| 13 Under | 47% | below BE |
| 14 Under | 54.6% | OFFERED |
| 15 Under | 60.4% | |
| 16 Under | 63.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→offno change
- Pulled14Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board14 → 14Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled14Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen14Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.86
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
56%
K/D
0.87
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
44.1%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.51
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.7
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
6.5
KPR
0.34
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Cache 13-5 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 3 Cache 6-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Cache 16-14 | 7 Mirage 19-16 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 10 Mirage 16-13 | 9 Inferno 22-19 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Nuke 2-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 5 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 10 Cache 7-13 | 2 Ancient 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 7 Cache 8-13 | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 6 Cache 7-13 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 17 Inferno 13-6 | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 9 Cache 9-13 | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 15 | L | Over ✗ |







































































































































































