KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.98
Hit
42%
EV+
-27.2%
Edge
-1.0
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.34
Hit
51.5%
EV+
-10.8%
Edge
+0.3
L10
40%

Rifler · IGL
krabeni
FUT vs TYLOO
RISK · OVER 17
BEST OVER · PP 17PP17UD17.5
▲ L5 18.8 · L20 16.4Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
20%
4/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.87
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
1/1 hit · avg 24 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Nuke 13-9 · Ancient 13-6 · W
24
Over 17 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
16.6
4/16 hit at 17
Online · this match
15.5
0/4 hit at 17
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Krabeni is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~32 kills at 56.9% HS): 0.692 KPR over ~43 rounds. His Kills line is 30.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (15.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.34
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
51.5%
EV+
-10.8%
Rating
3.6/10
Exp. rounds
43.2
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.5%
-5.5 →
Learned
46%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
59.7%191 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 20.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 20.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.72) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.0 headshots vs line 16.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 57%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 18.0 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.34 vs line 17 → +0.34 (2.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.2 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.4
HS/Map
8.2
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.1
KAST
74.2%
HS%
56.9%
Multi-kill
16.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.6 · KPR 0.731 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.1 · KPR 0.634 · 22.5r
Required KPR to clear0.692
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.07%
Final projected kills29.38
× realistic HS% (56.9%)17.34
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 53.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps15.6%
~15 HS · 36r22%
Normal66.1%
~17 HS · 43r47.1%
Close maps10.5%
~19 HS · 46r57.9%
Overtime7.8%
~21 HS · 52r76.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
20.7r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.5r
-12% KPR here
Total
43.2r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)15.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 18.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Over | 64.8% | |
| 16 Over | 61.5% | |
| 17 Over | 51.5% | OFFERED |
| 18 Over | 45.4% | below BE |
| 19 Over | 37.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 16.5→17+0.5
- Back on board16.5 → 17Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
58.2%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
53.6%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.81
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.19
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
55.9%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.92
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.4
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.51
Cache
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.78
HS%
72.2%
K/D
1.2
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
53.3%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 3 Nuke 13-6 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 13 Cache 13-10 | 9 Anubis 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 16-13 | 7 Ancient 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Nuke 12-16 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-19 | Poland | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-19 | Kosovo | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 2 Dust2 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 4 Overpass 5-13 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Overpass 2-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 12 Anubis 13-11 | 3 Overpass 7-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ |







































































































































































