KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.27
Hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
-3.2
L10
90%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.05
Hit
54.9%
EV+
-4.9%
Edge
-1.4
L10
80%

Rifler
snow
paiN vs Galorys
RISK · UNDER 14.5
▼ L5 10.8 · L20 14.0Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.07
Previous meeting · vs Galorys
1/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 13-9 · Dust2 13-5 · W
12
Under 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.3
11/16 hit at 14.5
Online
17
1/4 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm snow is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 50.5% HS): below 0.648 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.05
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
54.9%
EV+
-4.9%
Rating
4.4/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.9%
-8.7 →
Learned
46.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 59% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.2 headshots vs line 14.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 51%. Next: vs Galorys, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.2 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.05 vs line 14.5 → -1.45 (-10.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.85
HS/Map
7
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.61
ADR
70.8
KAST
73.9%
HS%
50.5%
Multi-kill
13.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.2 · KPR 0.641 · 22.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.8 · KPR 0.625 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.648
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.05
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.04%
Final projected kills27.76
× realistic HS% (50.5%)13.05
Galorys gives up (77 series)-7.9% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 63.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.4%
~11 HS · 37r84.7%
Normal43.9%
~14 HS · 46r62.2%
Close maps16.7%
~14 HS · 47r57.4%
Overtime10%
~16 HS · 53r40%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 59% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Cache
22.6r
+6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 12.2 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 39.5% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 45.3% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 54.9% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 59.3% | |
| 16.5 Under | 62.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.65
HS%
45.1%
K/D
0.98
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.63
HS%
52.4%
K/D
1
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.59
HS%
57.8%
K/D
0.8
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
49%
K/D
1
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.65
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.91
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
54.7%
K/D
0.98
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 5 Inferno 3-13 | 12 Anubis 16-14 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 3 Cache 7-13 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 2 Inferno 2-13 | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 3 Anubis 4-13 | 3 Cache 11-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 6 Cache 13-9 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 10 Cache 13-7 | 4 Dust2 13-3 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Anubis 13-6 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | BIG | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Cache 8-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | HOTU | 10 Cache 11-13 | 1 Nuke 4-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Natus Vincere | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 22 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | FURIA | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | The MongolZ | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Wildcard | 10 Inferno 12-16 | 5 Nuke 13-3 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-31 | Astralis | 12 Nuke 13-10 | 12 Inferno 17-19 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 14 Mirage 16-14 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gentle Mates | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-16 | 3DMAX | 3 Cache 10-13 | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-15 | Phantom | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 6 Anubis 5-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |







































































































































































