KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.7
Hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.57
Hit
62%
EV+
+7.4%
Edge
-1.9
L10
90%

Rifler
tomate
Galorys vs paiN
RISK · UNDER 29.5
▼ L5 25.0 · L20 29.8Risk · Edge -0.8 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.9
Previous meeting · vs paiN
1/1 hit · avg 24 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 9-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
24
Under 29.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
25.3
4/6 hit at 29.5
Online
31.7
5/14 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tomate is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.65 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.7
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.2%
-8.4 →
Learned
36.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
44%332 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.29) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.7 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 49%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 26.7 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.7 vs line 29.5 → -0.8 (-2.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
7.35
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.63
ADR
71.1
KAST
75.6%
HS%
49.3%
Multi-kill
14%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15.9 · KPR 0.703 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.4 · KPR 0.638 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.65
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.44
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.51%
Final projected kills30.29
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 54.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.7%
~24 kills · 38r83%
Normal50.6%
~29 kills · 46r55.3%
Close maps16.7%
~31 kills · 49r44.2%
Overtime10%
~35 kills · 55r23.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
22.7r
+11% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.7r
+1% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 26.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 36.3% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 39.7% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 45.2% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 50.6% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 53.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board29.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Ancient
16 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.09
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
47.4%
K/D
1.02
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
49.4%
K/D
1.58
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.05
Cache
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.57
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BESTIA | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 18 Anubis 13-9 | 14 Inferno 9-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 16 Anubis 8-13 | 18 Inferno 16-14 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | LP | 11 Inferno 5-13 | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Bounty Hunters | 17 Cache 13-6 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Yawara | 15 Anubis 13-4 | 17 Ancient 13-2 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Turma do Pagode | 20 Ancient 13-10 | 15 Nuke 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Grêmio | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 35 Ancient 25-28 | 51 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | Turma do Pagode | 12 Anubis 13-4 | 13 Nuke 10-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Procyon | 14 Inferno 13-4 | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BESTIA Academy | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Grêmio | 29 Inferno 19-16 | 20 Ancient 13-9 | 49 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | Turma do Pagode | 18 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 13 Inferno 6-13 | 23 Ancient 13-9 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Bounty Hunters | 5 Cache 7-13 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | paiN | 13 Cache 9-13 | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | METANOIA Wolves | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 21 Ancient 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































