KillsNeutral
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.46
Hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.7%
Edge
-3.0
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.11
Hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.4%
Edge
-2.4
L10
80%
#32Ranked 32 of 277 on the board

Rifler
mezii
Vitality vs The MongolZ
PLAYABLE · UNDER 15.5
BEST UNDER · PP 15.5PP15.5UD14.5
▼ L5 11.6 · L20 13.9LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.97
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.2
12/19 hit at 15.5
Online
9
1/1 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm mezii is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 56.5% HS): below 0.724 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.11
Raw edge
-2.4
Cons. hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.4%
Rating
7/10
Exp. rounds
37.9
Line
15.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
60.3%
+8 →
Learned
68.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 78.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.76) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.6 headshots vs line 15.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 57%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.6 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 13.11 vs line 15.5 → -2.39 (-15.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.9 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.3
HS/Map
6.95
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.59
ADR
64.8
KAST
74.5%
HS%
56.5%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.1 · KPR 0.656 · 19.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.7 · KPR 0.66 · 18.3r
Required KPR to clear0.724
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.92
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.31%
Final projected kills24.35
× realistic HS% (56.5%)13.11
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 78.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps35.8%
~11 HS · 32r90.1%
Normal33.4%
~14 HS · 41r65.1%
Close maps25.2%
~14 HS · 41r66.4%
Overtime5.6%
~16 HS · 47r45.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
19.6r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.3r
+4% KPR here
Total
37.9r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)35.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 12.6 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 43.4% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 53.1% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 60.3% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 64% | |
| 17.5 Under | 65.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
56%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.62
HS%
58.9%
K/D
1.06
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.6
HS%
48.9%
K/D
1.12
Cache
6 maps
Kills
9.7
KPR
0.49
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.16
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
54%
K/D
0.85
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
81.8%
K/D
0.85
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Cache 13-10 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 13-8 | 4 Inferno 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 3 Anubis 7-13 | 6 Cache 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 10 Inferno 13-2 | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 7 Anubis 9-13 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 8 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 7 Dust2 13-1 | 8 Cache 13-5 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 13 Anubis 13-4 | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 2 Cache 13-5 | 8 Anubis 13-8 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 7 Dust2 13-9 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 11 Anubis 11-13 | 10 Nuke 16-14 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Cache 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Lynn Vision | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 10 Inferno 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | B8 | 13 Mirage 16-12 | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-24 | Liquid | 3 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-19 | Falcons | 6 Anubis 11-13 | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | BetBoom | 9 Overpass 13-8 | 6 Nuke 13-11 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | MOUZ | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ |








































































































































































