KillsRisk
Line
23
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.02
Hit
42.9%
EV+
-25.7%
Edge
-1.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
12
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.42
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.7%
Edge
-1.6
L10
60%

Rifler
viridian
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
RISK · UNDER 23
PP23
▲ L5 24.4 · L20 21.8Risk · Edge -1.0 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 23 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.13
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
1/1 hit · avg 17 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
17
Under 23 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.4
2/5 hit at 23
Online
20.9
9/15 hit at 23
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm viridian is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 73.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 22 kills or fewer: below 0.61 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
22.02
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
42.9%
EV+
-25.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.7
Line
23
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.9%
-8.3 →
Learned
34.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 21-25
All players · Kills
31.9%47 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.99) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.4 kills vs line 23.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 47%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.4 against a 23.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 38% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.02 vs line 23 → -0.98 (-4.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.7 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.9
HS/Map
5.1
K/D
0.82
KPR
0.51
ADR
61
KAST
74.2%
HS%
46.8%
Multi-kill
9.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)9.5 · KPR 0.509 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)11.5 · KPR 0.644 · 18.5r
Required KPR to clear0.61
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.67
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-3.14%
Final projected kills20.99
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 23. Model: 55.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps42.6%
~19 kills · 32r74.8%
Normal34.9%
~24 kills · 41r43%
Close maps16.9%
~24 kills · 41r44.3%
Overtime5.6%
~28 kills · 47r25.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 73.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
19.2r
-8% KPR here
M2 Nuke
18.5r
+16% KPR here
Total
37.7r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)42.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 23 (Under) · avg 21.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
23
Nearby lines
| 21 Under | 34.2% | below BE |
| 22 Under | 37.6% | below BE |
| 23 Under | 42.9% | OFFERED |
| 24 Under | 46.2% | below BE |
| 25 Under | 49.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 23
Line movement
first 23→23no change
- First seen23Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
9.4
KPR
0.46
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.74
Nuke
10 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.62
HS%
41.3%
K/D
0.87
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
49.6%
K/D
0.98
Overpass
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
46%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
8.2
KPR
0.44
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.61
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
6.5
KPR
0.38
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.54
Cache
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.4
HS%
33.3%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 19 Dust2 17-19 | 13 Inferno 9-13 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 10 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Cache 13-2 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Inferno 13-3 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Anubis 11-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 17 Inferno 16-19 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 7 Inferno 13-8 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 7 Ancient 13-4 | 9 Dust2 13-3 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Inferno 13-1 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Nuke 13-5 | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 11 Anubis 13-5 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-02-08 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Overpass 6-13 | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-02-08 | Mindfreak | 17 Overpass 13-11 | 19 Nuke 11-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-02-07 | Underground | 19 Nuke 9-13 | 17 Overpass 13-10 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-02-07 | Mindfreak | 3 Anubis 3-13 | 6 Nuke 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-01-31 | Rooster | 7 Nuke 3-13 | 16 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-01-31 | Rooster | 10 Anubis 4-13 | 8 Nuke 1-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-01-31 | Rooster | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 7 Overpass 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































