KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.8
Hit
44.8%
EV+
-22.5%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.6
Hit
43.4%
EV+
-24.8%
Edge
-0.4
L10
50%
#246Ranked 246 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Magnojez
BetBoom vs Nemiga
RISK · UNDER 17
BEST UNDER · UD 17.5PP17UD17.5SL17.5
≈ L5 16.0 · L20 16.1Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 17 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.06
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.1
10/20 hit at 17
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Magnojez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 61.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 52.6% HS): below 0.713 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (18.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16.6
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
43.4%
EV+
-24.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.3
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.4%
+5 →
Learned
48.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 15-19
All players · Headshots
40.3%191 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 62% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 19% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.86) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.8 headshots vs line 16.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 53%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.8 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.6 vs line 17 → -0.4 (-2.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.3 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.35
HS/Map
8.07
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.67
ADR
76.7
KAST
69.4%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)8.3 · KPR 0.665 · 23.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.5 · KPR 0.747 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.713
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.9
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.49%
Final projected kills32.05
× realistic HS% (52.6%)16.6
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17. Model: 55.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.2%
~14 HS · 38r75.6%
Normal35.5%
~16 HS · 43r60.5%
Close maps24.4%
~18 HS · 49r40%
Overtime18.9%
~20 HS · 55r23%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 61.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 62% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
23.7r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.6r
+11% KPR here
Total
45.3r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Under) · avg 15.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Under | 26.3% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 33.6% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 43.4% | OFFERED |
| 18 Under | 54.8% | below BE |
| 19 Under | 60% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 16.5→17+0.5
- Moved up16.5 → 17Oct 25, 04:14 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.93
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.8%
K/D
1.04
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
51.2%
K/D
0.86
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.92
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.6
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 5 Ancient 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Ancient 19-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 3 Anubis 5-13 | 14 Dust2 16-14 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 8 Nuke 16-13 | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 3 Anubis 13-4 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 12 Mirage 9-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 9 Cache 16-14 | 4 Anubis 13-11 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 14 Cache 14-16 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Anubis 13-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Anubis 16-14 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 15 Ancient 16-14 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 6 Cache 13-8 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 7 Anubis 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 5 Cache 2-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Anubis 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 5 Overpass 8-13 | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | FURIA | 6 Overpass 6-13 | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































