KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.55
Hit
51.1%
EV+
-11.6%
Edge
-3.0
L10
30%
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AWPer
bsd
MEIA NOITE vs Tropa do KinGui
RISK · UNDER 29.5
≈ L5 27.6 · L20 27.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
47%
8/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.42
Previous meeting · vs Tropa do KinGui
No meeting with Tropa do KinGui in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
27.5
8/17 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm bsd is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.723 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.55
Raw edge
-3.0
Cons. hit
51.1%
EV+
-11.6%
Rating
2.4/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.1%
+8.6 →
Learned
59.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
44%332 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 47.1% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 47.1% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.1) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 29.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 35%. Next: vs Tropa do KinGui, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.55 vs line 29.5 → -2.95 (-10.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 11.5%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
13.76
HS/Map
4.88
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.73
ADR
72.9
KAST
73.8%
HS%
35.5%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)11.4 · KPR 0.56 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.7 · KPR 0.725 · 20.3r
Required KPR to clear0.723
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.2
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.36%
Final projected kills26.1
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 67.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~22 kills · 34r91.3%
Normal35%
~26 kills · 40r73.2%
Close maps28.5%
~28 kills · 44r58.9%
Overtime11.5%
~32 kills · 50r33.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 35% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Ancient
20.5r
-18% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.3r
+6% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime11.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 31.0 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 44.1% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 47.7% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 51.1% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 54.1% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 61.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board29.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.56
HS%
43.2%
K/D
0.84
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.78
HS%
30.5%
K/D
1.4
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
40.9%
K/D
1.25
Cache
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
26.8%
K/D
0.93
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
8.3
KPR
0.47
HS%
40%
K/D
0.69
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.62
HS%
27%
K/D
0.82
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Procyon | 4 Inferno 2-13 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Galorys | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | ALKA | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 21 Dust2 13-8 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-30 | METANOIA Wolves | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-29 | ALKA | 17 Nuke 7-13 | 17 Dust2 9-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 16 Dust2 13-4 | 15 Ancient 13-8 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | ALKA | 19 Nuke 13-10 | 22 Dust2 12-16 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Low Cortisol BR | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Turma do Pagode | 18 Nuke 11-13 | 22 Dust2 11-13 | 40 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Mira | 2 Dust2 2-13 | 15 Ancient 16-12 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 21 Cache 13-16 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Bounty Hunters | 7 Cache 4-13 | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Grêmio | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Procyon | 15 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Inferno 2-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | ex-MIBR Academy | 13 Ancient 5-13 | 21 Mirage 13-16 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-27 | Sementes do Mal | 13 Cache 13-5 | 6 Mirage 4-6 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |









































































































































































