KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.23
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.5%
Edge
+0.7
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.72
Hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.2%
Edge
+1.2
L10
70%

Rifler
balencyy
Grêmio vs Yawara Esports
RISK · OVER 16.5
▼ L5 17.6 · L20 20.5Risk · Edge +1.2 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
80%
12/15
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Medium
±5.06
Previous meeting · vs Yawara Esports
2/2 hit · avg 24.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-08 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 3
Nuke 16-19 · Mirage 10-13 · L
23
Over 16.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
Nuke 9-13 · Mirage 13-11 · Split
26
Over 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
20.5
12/15 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm balencyy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 31.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~30 kills at 57.5% HS): 0.632 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (75%) or blowout (25.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.72
Raw edge
+1.2
Cons. hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.2%
Rating
3.8/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.7%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 80.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 75% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.77) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.8 headshots vs line 16.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 57%. Next: vs Yawara, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 19.8 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.72 vs line 16.5 → +1.22 (7.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 12.9%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
17.87
HS/Map
10.27
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.6
KAST
69.7%
HS%
57.5%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.2 · KPR 0.667 · 21.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)9.6 · KPR 0.707 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.632
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.24
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.11%
Final projected kills30.9
× realistic HS% (57.5%)17.72
Yawara Esports gives up (52 series)+5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 59.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.6%
~15 HS · 38r33.4%
Normal35.5%
~18 HS · 45r57.1%
Close maps26%
~19 HS · 49r68.3%
Overtime12.9%
~21 HS · 55r82.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 31.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
21.5r
-1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.9r
+5% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)38.9%
Overtime12.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 19.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 61.2% | |
| 15.5 Over | 58.4% | |
| 16.5 Over | 54.7% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 50.4% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 45.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→offno change
- Pulled17.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Moved up16.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 06:45 PM
- Back on board16.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.2%
K/D
1.07
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
20.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
48%
K/D
1.13
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.89
HS%
48.9%
K/D
1.35
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.76
HS%
67.8%
K/D
0.98
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
1 maps
Kills
23
KPR
0.96
HS%
78.3%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Low Cortisol BR | 11 Mirage 13-3 | 8 Cache 10-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | JOGA DE TERNO | 10 Inferno 13-5 | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Los Niños | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | BORRACHEIROS | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Yawara | 14 Nuke 16-19 | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | Galorys | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 15 Ancient 28-25 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Galorys | 11 Inferno 16-19 | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-30 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 13 Inferno 13-7 | 15 Cache 17-19 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | Procyon | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 10 Nuke 3-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Yawara | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Mirage 13-11 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | your end | 8 Cache 13-7 | 13 Ancient 13-1 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Isurus | 9 Inferno 13-7 | 11 Cache 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ALKA | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Keyd Stars | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 18 Dust2 11-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | MEIA NOITE | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ |









































































































































































