KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.55
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.5%
Edge
+0.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.65
Hit
58.2%
EV+
+0.7%
Edge
+0.7
L10
50%

Rifler · IGL
art
Legacy vs Nemiga
RISK · OVER 24.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP24.5UD24.5
≈ L5 24.6 · L20 24.1Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 24.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.81
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.1
10/20 hit at 24.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm arT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.558 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (18%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
24.55
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.5%
Rating
3.7/10
Exp. rounds
43.9
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.8%
+8.6 →
Learned
61.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
58.7%138 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 55% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.53) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.1 kills vs line 24.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 49%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 25.1 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.55 vs line 24.5 → +0.05 (0.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.9 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.03
HS/Map
5.85
K/D
0.8
KPR
0.56
ADR
61.6
KAST
70.1%
HS%
48.6%
Multi-kill
11.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)12.7 · KPR 0.588 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)11.8 · KPR 0.53 · 22.3r
Required KPR to clear0.558
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.52
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.05%
Final projected kills24.53
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24.5. Model: 50.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps18%
~21 kills · 37r19.9%
Normal55.3%
~24 kills · 43r46.7%
Close maps14.5%
~26 kills · 47r62%
Overtime12.2%
~30 kills · 53r82%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 66% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21.6r
+6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.3r
-5% KPR here
Total
43.9r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)18%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Over) · avg 25.1 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Over | 63.2% | |
| 23.5 Over | 59.9% | |
| 24.5 Over | 52.8% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Over | 44.6% | below BE |
| 26.5 Over | 36.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- Back on board24.5 → 24.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board24.5 → 24.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board24.5 → 24.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.6
HS%
44.2%
K/D
0.91
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
54.7%
K/D
0.74
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.48
HS%
48%
K/D
0.7
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.48
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.65
Cache
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.8
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.47
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 10 Nuke 13-16 | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 15 Cache 13-10 | 10 Inferno 5-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 12 Ancient 11-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 20 Ancient 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 18 Dust2 13-6 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 14 Nuke 14-16 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 10 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 18 Inferno 13-9 | 10 Ancient 13-2 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | FaZe | 9 Cache 6-13 | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | G2 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Overpass 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | PARIVISION | 19 Inferno 16-12 | 12 Dust2 16-13 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Natus Vincere | 11 Inferno 4-13 | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |






































































































































































