KillsLean
Line
21.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
19.06
Hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Edge
-2.4
L10
56%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.05
Hit
62%
EV+
+7.4%
Edge
-2.5
L10
67%

Rifler · IGL
agt
Bestia Academy vs RED Canids Academy
PLAYABLE · UNDER 10.5
▼ L5 8.4 · L20 8.8
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
67%
6/9
L20
67%
6/9
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.74
Previous meeting · vs RED Canids Academy
No meeting with RED Canids Academy in his last 9 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
8.8
6/9 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm AGT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 39.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~26 kills at 42.5% HS): below 0.603 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (6.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.05
Raw edge
-2.5
Cons. hit
62%
EV+
+7.4%
Rating
9/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
10.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
62%
+2.6 →
Learned
64.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 81.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 9 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 66.7% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (7.89) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 9 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.8 headshots vs line 10.5 (3/9 over). KPR 0.50, HS 42%. Next: vs RED Canids Academy, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 8.8 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: 39% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 39% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 8.05 vs line 10.5 → -2.45 (-23.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 66.7% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 6.5%
Performance (last 18 maps)
Kills/Map
10.33
HS/Map
4.39
K/D
0.78
KPR
0.5
ADR
58
KAST
74.3%
HS%
42.5%
Multi-kill
9.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)3.7 · KPR 0.476 · 18.6r
Map 2 (Nuke)4.2 · KPR 0.452 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.603
Base kills (Maps 1-2)18.97
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.12%
Final projected kills18.57
× realistic HS% (42.5%)8.05
RED Canids Academy gives up (18 series)-11.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 81.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps37.9%
~7 HS · 35r91.1%
Normal43.6%
~9 HS · 44r73.5%
Close maps12%
~9 HS · 44r74.4%
Overtime6.5%
~10 HS · 50r60.5%
Match context
Oct 23, 07:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 39.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 40% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
18.6r
+2% KPR here
M2 Nuke
22.4r
-3% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.5%
Overtime6.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
9 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 8.8 · hit 6/9 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 47.8% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 56.5% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 62% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 64.7% | |
| 12.5 Under | 66% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10
Line movement
first 10.5→offno change
- Pulled10.5Oct 23, 07:06 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 22, 05:02 PM
Map stats
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
9.4
KPR
0.51
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.92
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.47
HS%
43.1%
K/D
0.67
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.52
HS%
31.2%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.73
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.38
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.45
HS%
20%
K/D
0.67
Cache
1 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.3
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.5
Dust2
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.45
HS%
40%
K/D
0.83
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Procyon | 2 Inferno 5-13 | 4 Nuke 9-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | ALKA | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 2 Anubis 9-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 5 Inferno 6-13 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Sementes do Mal | 4 Dust2 13-9 | 3 Mirage 13-11 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Zetta | 7 Ancient 13-3 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Imperial | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DAMAJUANA | 4 Cache 13-10 | 2 Inferno 13-8 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Blitzkrieg | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 5 Ancient 13-1 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | BORRACHEIROS | 7 Nuke 22-20 | 2 Mirage 3-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































