KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.82
Hit
51.7%
EV+
-10.5%
Edge
+0.3
L10
50%
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Rifler
XANTARES
Aurora vs The MongolZ
RISK · OVER 29.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP29.5UD29.5
≈ L5 28.8 · L20 28.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.93
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
0/1 hit · avg 20 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 16-12 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
20
Under 29.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
28.9
9/20 hit at 29.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm XANTARES is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.653 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.82
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
51.7%
EV+
-10.5%
Rating
1.3/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.7%
-6.6 →
Learned
45.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.26) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.9 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 53%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 28.9 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.82 vs line 29.5 → +0.32 (1.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.47
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.67
ADR
77.7
KAST
70.9%
HS%
53%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)15.7 · KPR 0.672 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.6 · KPR 0.669 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.653
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.31
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills30.26
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 51.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~25 kills · 38r20.9%
Normal42.8%
~30 kills · 45r48.1%
Close maps22.8%
~32 kills · 48r63.5%
Overtime12.2%
~36 kills · 54r82.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
23.4r
M2 Dust2
21.8r
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 28.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 57.8% | |
| 28.5 Over | 55% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 51.7% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 48.2% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 42.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- Back on board31.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 05:49 AM
- Moved up29.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 02:41 AM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
54.4%
K/D
0.98
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
48.7%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.99
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.8
HS%
50.6%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
7.8
KPR
0.44
HS%
64.5%
K/D
0.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 16 Inferno 16-12 | 4 Nuke 2-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 16 Anubis 8-13 | 24 Dust2 19-17 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Inferno 10-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 10 Cache 13-11 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 17 Cache 13-9 | 19 Dust2 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Nuke 1-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 18 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Anubis 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 12 Anubis 13-7 | 19 Cache 7-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 20 Dust2 13-9 | 16 Anubis 13-8 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 4-13 | 11 Dust2 10-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 19 Dust2 13-3 | 18 Mirage 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 4-13 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 14 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 21 Cache 13-7 | 30 Mirage 19-17 | 51 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 24 Inferno 16-19 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 21 Inferno 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 18 Cache 13-7 | 15 Mirage 16-12 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OT |







































































































































































