KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.11
Hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.1%
Edge
+0.1
L10
30%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.09
Hit
45.9%
EV+
-20.5%
Edge
+0.1
L10
20%

Rifler
makazze
Natus Vincere vs G2
RISK · OVER 16
BEST OVER · UD 15.5PP16UD15.5
▲ L5 17.4 · L20 15.2Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
25%
5/20
H2H
33%
1/3
Volatility
Medium
±4.15
Previous meeting · vs G2
1/3 hit · avg 15.3 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 13-7 · Inferno 13-4 · W
13
Under 16 ✗
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 6-13 · Inferno 10-13 · L
13
Under 16 ✗
2026-06-15 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Dust2 13-11 · Inferno 14-16 · Split
20
Over 16 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.2
5/20 hit at 16
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm makazze is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 57.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~31 kills at 54.2% HS): 0.649 KPR over ~46 rounds. His Kills line is 29.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.09
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
45.9%
EV+
-20.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.9%
+8.7 →
Learned
54.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 20.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 25.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 25.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.53) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.3 headshots vs line 16.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 54%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.3 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.09 vs line 16 → +0.09 (0.6%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 20% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.97
HS/Map
7.58
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.71
ADR
81.9
KAST
72.4%
HS%
54.2%
Multi-kill
18.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.9 · KPR 0.576 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)8.7 · KPR 0.693 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.649
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.93
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.00%
Final projected kills28.64
× realistic HS% (54.2%)16.09
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 50.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~14 HS · 38r20.8%
Normal46.6%
~17 HS · 47r48.8%
Close maps18.9%
~17 HS · 49r55%
Overtime7.8%
~19 HS · 55r72.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
-19% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.3r
-3% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 16.3 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 63.3% | |
| 15 Over | 55.4% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 45.9% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 40.2% | below BE |
| 18 Over | 32.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled16Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled16Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen16Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.71
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
45.7%
K/D
1.02
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
61.3%
K/D
0.98
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
49.5%
K/D
1.1
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.79
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.13
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.27
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.46
HS%
52.8%
K/D
0.59
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 6-13 | 24 Anubis 19-15 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 5-13 | 9 Nuke 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 10 Cache 13-10 | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 8 Nuke 8-13 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Inferno 10-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 7 Ancient 2-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 10 Inferno 13-5 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Inferno 14-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 7 Ancient 16-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 1 Dust2 1-13 | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 9 Mirage 13-3 | 2 Anubis 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Vitality | 4 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Anubis 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ |







































































































































































