KillsLean
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.68
Hit
59.7%
EV+
+3.4%
Edge
+3.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.48
Hit
63.1%
EV+
+9.2%
Edge
+3.0
L10
70%

Rifler
0SAMAS
JiJieHao vs Eternal Fire
LEAN · OVER 15.5
▲ L5 21.2 · L20 16.9
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
63%
10/16
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
High
±5.92
Previous meeting · vs Eternal Fire
2/2 hit · avg 20 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · Journey Autumn 2026
Dust2 15-19 · Mirage 13-11 · Split
23
Over 15.5 ✓
2026-09-24 · Stake Pulse Beat II
Anubis 13-10 · Mirage 13-2 · W
17
Over 15.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.9
10/16 hit at 15.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm 0SAMAS is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~27 kills at 59% HS): 0.59 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (48%) or blowout (28.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.48
Raw edge
+3.0
Cons. hit
63.1%
EV+
+9.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
15.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
63.1%
+7.7 →
Learned
70.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%263 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 62.5% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 48% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.31) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.5 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 59%. Next: vs Eternal Fire, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.5 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 18.48 vs line 15.5 → +2.98 (19.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 48% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
14.31
HS/Map
8.44
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.67
ADR
73.3
KAST
73.7%
HS%
59%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.4 · KPR 0.685 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.9 · KPR 0.644 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.59
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.52
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills29.34
× realistic HS% (59%)18.48
Eternal Fire gives up (87 series)+0.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 69.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.7%
~16 HS · 37r47.1%
Normal49.3%
~19 HS · 46r72.1%
Close maps9.8%
~20 HS · 48r76.4%
Overtime12.2%
~22 HS · 54r87.3%
Match context
Oct 23, 01:00 PMLANDraculaN Season 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23.5r
-4% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep48%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 18.5 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 65.4% | |
| 14.5 Over | 64.4% | |
| 15.5 Over | 63.1% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 61.1% | |
| 17.5 Over | 58.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled17Oct 23, 01:42 PM
- Back on board17 → 17Oct 23, 01:14 PM
- Pulled17Oct 23, 01:02 PM
- Moved up16.5 → 17Oct 23, 08:34 AM
- Moved up15.5 → 16.5Oct 23, 02:50 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.93
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
58.5%
K/D
0.88
Cache
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.79
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.74
HS%
53.1%
K/D
1.25
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.58
HS%
51.2%
K/D
0.84
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.63
HS%
65%
K/D
0.85
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | BC.Game | 8 Dust2 13-5 | 12 Ancient 16-14 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | Nexus | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Mirage 16-12 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | SINNERS | 16 Dust2 19-22 | 12 Inferno 10-13 | 28 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | FaZe | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Iberian Soul | 6 Inferno 3-13 | 14 Mirage 13-5 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Liquid | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 1 Cache 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 7 Cache 7-13 | 2 Dust2 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Eternal Fire | 12 Dust2 15-19 | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | 100 Thieves | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Cache 13-5 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Sangal | 5 Cache 9-13 | 5 Ancient 10-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Eternal Fire | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Aurora | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 4 Anubis 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | GamerLegion | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 5 Ancient 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | HOTU | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































