KillsTake
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.86
Hit
63.4%
EV+
+9.9%
Edge
+5.4
L10
60%
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Rifler
reyoz
Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity
TAKE · OVER 29.5
PP29.5
≈ L5 32.4 · L20 31.9
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±8.05
Previous meeting · vs ex-Zero Tenacity
No meeting with ex-Zero Tenacity in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
31.9
12/20 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm reyoz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 50.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.59 KPR over ~50 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.86
Raw edge
+5.4
Cons. hit
63.4%
EV+
+9.9%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
50
Line
29.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
63.4%
-7.4 →
Learned
56%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 74.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (35.91) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.7 kills vs line 29.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 53%. Next: vs ex-Zero Tenacity, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 33.7 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 34.86 vs line 29.5 → +5.36 (18.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 50 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 23.3%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.97
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
1
KPR
0.77
ADR
81.8
KAST
74.2%
HS%
53.4%
Multi-kill
20.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.3 · KPR 0.658 · 24.6r
Map 2 (Mirage)19.6 · KPR 0.763 · 25.4r
Required KPR to clear0.59
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.97%
Final projected kills35.91
ex-Zero Tenacity gives up (62 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 74.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~29 kills · 42r46.8%
Normal45%
~33 kills · 48r70.5%
Close maps11.7%
~37 kills · 54r86.8%
Overtime23.3%
~42 kills · 60r95.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 50.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.6r
-14% KPR here
M2 Mirage
25.4r
-1% KPR here
Total
50r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime23.3%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 33.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 65.6% | |
| 28.5 Over | 65% | |
| 29.5 Over | 63.4% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 62.2% | |
| 31.5 Over | 60.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.9
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.07
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.84
HS%
50.8%
K/D
1.32
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
58.1%
K/D
0.75
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.74
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.13
Cache
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.56
HS%
50%
K/D
0.67
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | los kogutos | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 28 Mirage 13-16 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | ex-6666 | 12 Anubis 13-10 | 17 Ancient 10-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | B8 Academy | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 12 Ancient 13-5 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | Saint Sinners | 20 Dust2 13-9 | 13 Ancient 8-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Azuolas | 15 Mirage 13-16 | 25 Ancient 13-6 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | benched gods | 16 Ancient 9-13 | 22 Anubis 13-9 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | 6666 | 9 Anubis 4-13 | 17 Dust2 10-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Illyrians | 20 Ancient 13-7 | 15 Dust2 6-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ex-RUSTEC | 22 Mirage 13-9 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Leo | 22 Dust2 13-10 | 27 Mirage 13-16 | 49 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-30 | Azuolas | 19 Mirage 13-3 | 17 Ancient 13-2 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | MASONIC | 25 Dust2 17-19 | 21 Mirage 16-13 | 46 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Nemiga | 10 Cache 5-13 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | WW | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 21 Mirage 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | Color | 11 Anubis 16-14 | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 20 Mirage 16-13 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-14 | Bushido Wildcats | 17 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | INOX Division | 16 Inferno 13-4 | 17 Dust2 16-14 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-08 | Nemiga | 19 Dust2 13-16 | 8 Anubis 6-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | HEROIC | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 10 Inferno 5-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































