KillsBetter playTake
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.78
Hit
66.7%
EV+
+15.6%
Edge
+6.3
L10
80%
HeadshotsTake
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.08
Hit
66%
EV+
+14.4%
Edge
+2.6
L10
80%

Rifler
amster
ex-6666 vs FOKUS
TAKE · OVER 26.5
▲ L5 33.6 · L20 32.1
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±5.19
Previous meeting · vs FOKUS
1/1 hit · avg 29 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 3-13 · Nuke 13-16 · L
29
Over 26.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
32.1
15/20 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm amster is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.589 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.78
Raw edge
+6.3
Cons. hit
66.7%
EV+
+15.6%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
26.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
66.7%
+1.5 →
Learned
68.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
56%273 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 88.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.42) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.9 kills vs line 26.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 48%. Next: vs FOKUS, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 31.9 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 32.78 vs line 26.5 → +6.28 (23.7%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.05
HS/Map
7.72
K/D
1.13
KPR
0.72
ADR
79.1
KAST
74.6%
HS%
48.1%
Multi-kill
20.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)15.6 · KPR 0.743 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)16.8 · KPR 0.7 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.589
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.06%
Final projected kills32.42
FOKUS gives up (48 series)+2.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 88.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~28 kills · 38r56.3%
Normal38.6%
~32 kills · 44r82.1%
Close maps24.8%
~35 kills · 48r92.6%
Overtime14.4%
~39 kills · 54r98.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Anubis
21r
+2% KPR here
M2 Nuke
24r
-3% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 31.9 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 67.4% | |
| 25.5 Over | 67.2% | |
| 26.5 Over | 66.7% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 66.3% | |
| 28.5 Over | 65.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
47.9%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
1.04
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.78
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.19
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
50%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
19.6
KPR
0.77
HS%
51%
K/D
1.15
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
38.9%
K/D
0.92
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FOKUS | 11 Ancient 3-13 | 18 Nuke 13-16 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | 6yuBoJlbl | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 19 Nuke 13-10 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Acend | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 25 Inferno 14-16 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | Bushido Wildcats | 21 Anubis 13-4 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | Saint Sinners | 19 Dust2 13-5 | 25 Ancient 13-7 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | BRUTE | 15 Anubis 8-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Lavked | 21 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Dust2 10-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 17 Anubis 10-13 | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Fire Flux | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 20 Inferno 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Privateer | 15 Ancient 13-5 | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | G2 Ares | 22 Inferno 13-11 | 18 Dust2 13-2 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | mellren | 17 Dust2 4-13 | 17 Ancient 13-11 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Enjoy | 10 Anubis 10-13 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Bushido Wildcats | 18 Dust2 13-9 | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | los kogutos | 22 Nuke 16-14 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | GenOne | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 18 Inferno 16-12 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Black Phoenix | 11 Dust2 4-13 | 14 Anubis 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | megoshort | 17 Mirage 13-6 | 24 Anubis 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | benched gods | 8 Anubis 3-13 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Bebop | 16 Anubis 13-6 | 20 Nuke 16-12 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































