KillsLean
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
36.47
Hit
60.6%
EV+
+5.0%
Edge
+4.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.79
Hit
63.9%
EV+
+10.8%
Edge
+2.3
L10
50%

AWPer
w0nderful
Natus Vincere vs G2
LEAN · OVER 32.5
BEST OVER · UD 31.5PP32.5UD31.5
▲ L5 36.0 · L20 31.8
Hit rates at 32.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
33%
1/3
Volatility
Medium
±7.84
Previous meeting · vs G2
1/3 hit · avg 28 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 13-7 · Inferno 13-4 · W
33
Over 32.5 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 6-13 · Inferno 10-13 · L
20
Under 32.5 ✗
2026-06-15 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Dust2 13-11 · Inferno 14-16 · Split
31
Under 32.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.8
8/20 hit at 32.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm w0nderful is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 57.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.714 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
36.47
Raw edge
+4.0
Cons. hit
60.6%
EV+
+5.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
32.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60.6%
+8 →
Learned
68.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
57.2%138 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (36.67) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.6 kills vs line 33.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 42%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.6 against a 33.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 36.47 vs line 32.5 → +3.97 (12.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.88
HS/Map
6.7
K/D
1.27
KPR
0.78
ADR
76
KAST
76.6%
HS%
42.2%
Multi-kill
19.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)16.3 · KPR 0.743 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)20.3 · KPR 0.882 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.714
Base kills (Maps 1-2)37.05
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.00%
Final projected kills36.67
G2 gives up (86 series)-2.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32.5. Model: 69.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~31 kills · 38r36.8%
Normal46.6%
~38 kills · 47r76.2%
Close maps18.9%
~39 kills · 49r82.2%
Overtime7.8%
~44 kills · 55r94.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
-4% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.3r
+13% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Over) · avg 32.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Over | 64.9% | |
| 31.5 Over | 64% | |
| 32.5 Over | 60.6% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Over | 55.2% | below BE |
| 34.5 Over | 52.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33
Line movement
first 33.5→32.5-1
- Back on board32.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled32.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board32.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled32.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- Moved down33.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 05:21 AM
- Moved up32.5 → 33.5Oct 24, 05:20 AM
- Moved down33.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 05:20 AM
- First seen33.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
43.9%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
41.5%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
0.93
HS%
42.5%
K/D
1.63
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
46%
K/D
1.28
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
45.7%
K/D
1.08
Cache
4 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.95
HS%
35.8%
K/D
1.93
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
36.7%
K/D
0.94
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 21 Cache 10-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 19 Inferno 6-13 | 28 Anubis 19-15 | 47 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 18 Cache 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 16 Anubis 5-13 | 13 Nuke 13-5 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 17 Inferno 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 26 Cache 13-10 | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 7 Nuke 8-13 | 14 Mirage 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 20 Nuke 13-9 | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 32 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 16 Anubis 13-4 | 16 Mirage 6-13 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 24 Inferno 9-13 | 8 Ancient 2-13 | 32 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 19 Inferno 13-5 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Inferno 14-16 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 23 Ancient 16-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 8 Dust2 1-13 | 17 Anubis 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 15 Mirage 13-3 | 24 Anubis 13-9 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 13 Ancient 13-8 | 19 Nuke 13-6 | 32 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Vitality | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 26 Anubis 13-11 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ |







































































































































































