KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.47
Hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.6%
Edge
+1.0
L10
57%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.97
Hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Edge
+0.5
L10
57%

Rifler
Queenix
STATE vs overTIME
RISK · OVER 25.5
Risk · Edge +1.0 far below ±3.0STAND-IN? · Altekz
Hit rates at 25.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
57%
4/7
L20
57%
4/7
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.47
Previous meeting · vs overTIME
1/1 hit · avg 27 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown
Anubis 13-3 · Nuke 13-1 · W
27
Over 25.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
27
1/1 hit at 25.5
Online · this match
26.3
3/6 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Queenix is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.588 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (26.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
26.47
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.6%
Rating
5.3/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.2%
-8.7 →
Learned
47.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
57%207 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Big enough sample: 7 recent series (need 8+)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 57.1% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 7 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 57.1% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 7 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.4 kills vs line 25.5 (4/7 over). KPR 0.61, HS 57%. Next: vs overTIME, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 26.4 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (7 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.47 vs line 25.5 → +0.97 (3.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 57.1% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.9%
Performance (last 14 maps)
Kills/Map
13.21
HS/Map
7.5
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.61
ADR
64.6
KAST
78%
HS%
56.8%
Multi-kill
14.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)14.3 · KPR 0.605 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)11.5 · KPR 0.59 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.588
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.96
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills25.73
overTIME gives up (10 series)+7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25.5. Model: 58.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.3%
~22 kills · 37r24.3%
Normal33.7%
~27 kills · 44r57.8%
Close maps32.1%
~28 kills · 46r68.9%
Overtime7.9%
~32 kills · 52r87%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
23.8r
-2% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
-4% KPR here
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime7.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
7 series · line 25.5 (Over) · avg 26.4 · hit 4/7 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Over | 63.1% | |
| 24.5 Over | 59.5% | |
| 25.5 Over | 56.2% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Over | 52.2% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 43.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→offno change
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- First seen25.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
57.4%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.57
HS%
83.3%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
64%
K/D
0.81
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.97
HS%
27.3%
K/D
1.94
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.45
HS%
50%
K/D
0.59
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 12 Anubis 13-3 | 15 Nuke 13-1 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | HOTU | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 21 Anubis 13-5 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | G2 Ares | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 25 Cache 15-19 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Famalicão | 12 Inferno 10-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Illyrians | 18 Mirage 11-13 | 9 Cache 13-11 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 13 Inferno 9-13 | 7 Nuke 13-10 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | KAMUI | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ |









































































































































































