KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28
Hit
40.3%
EV+
-30.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.87
Hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Edge
-0.6
L10
60%

Rifler
tN1R
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · UNDER 16.5
BEST UNDER · PP 16.5PP16.5UD15.5
▼ L5 13.6 · L20 17.1Risk · Edge -0.6 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.29
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.1
10/20 hit at 16.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm tN1R is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 66.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 57.7% HS): below 0.646 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.87
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.1%
-0.6 →
Learned
44.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.84) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.3 headshots vs line 16.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 58%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.3 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.87 vs line 16.5 → -0.63 (-3.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.78
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.67
ADR
74.1
KAST
71%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)9.5 · KPR 0.722 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.3 · KPR 0.582 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.646
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.96
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.81%
Final projected kills29.19
× realistic HS% (57.7%)15.87
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 55.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~13 HS · 37r80.6%
Normal44.5%
~16 HS · 44r58.6%
Close maps27.2%
~17 HS · 47r47.2%
Overtime7.8%
~19 HS · 53r28.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 66.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
22.7r
+8% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
-13% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 16.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 28.1% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 39.5% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 45.1% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 50.5% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 58.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- Back on board16.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.69
HS%
57.2%
K/D
1.07
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
60.5%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.03
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.54
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.05
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
21.7
KPR
0.87
HS%
63.1%
K/D
1.3
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 7 Anubis 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 6 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 6 Ancient 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 7 Cache 10-13 | 15 Anubis 16-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 16 Nuke 14-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 4 Cache 9-13 | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 16 Dust2 19-15 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































