KillsBetter playTake
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.97
Hit
66.2%
EV+
+14.7%
Edge
+5.5
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.84
Hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.7%
Edge
+1.8
L10
60%

AWPer
rendysky
ex-6666 vs FOKUS
TAKE · OVER 30.5
▲ L5 37.4 · L20 35.5
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
80%
16/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±5.59
Previous meeting · vs FOKUS
0/1 hit · avg 29 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 3-13 · Nuke 13-16 · L
29
Under 30.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
35.5
16/20 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm rendysky is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.678 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
35.97
Raw edge
+5.5
Cons. hit
66.2%
EV+
+14.7%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
30.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
66.2%
+7.3 →
Learned
73.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
55.2%286 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 83.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 80.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (35.35) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 36.4 kills vs line 30.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.83, HS 45%. Next: vs FOKUS, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 36.4 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 35.97 vs line 30.5 → +5.47 (17.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.77
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
1.32
KPR
0.83
ADR
82.8
KAST
78.6%
HS%
45.1%
Multi-kill
20%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)16.1 · KPR 0.768 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)19.2 · KPR 0.8 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.678
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.33
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.06%
Final projected kills35.35
FOKUS gives up (48 series)+2.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 83.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~30 kills · 38r46.7%
Normal38.6%
~35 kills · 44r76.4%
Close maps24.8%
~39 kills · 48r89.9%
Overtime14.4%
~43 kills · 54r97.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Anubis
21r
-7% KPR here
M2 Nuke
24r
-3% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 36.4 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 67.1% | |
| 29.5 Over | 66.6% | |
| 30.5 Over | 66.2% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 65.6% | |
| 32.5 Over | 64.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- Moved down30.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 01:28 AM
- First seen30.5Oct 23, 08:32 PM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
50.7%
K/D
1.21
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
19.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1.28
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.82
HS%
57.6%
K/D
1.36
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
36%
K/D
1.28
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
22.6
KPR
0.89
HS%
38.9%
K/D
1.49
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.84
HS%
32%
K/D
1.39
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FOKUS | 7 Ancient 3-13 | 22 Nuke 13-16 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | 6yuBoJlbl | 25 Mirage 11-13 | 19 Nuke 13-10 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Acend | 18 Dust2 6-13 | 25 Inferno 14-16 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | Bushido Wildcats | 14 Anubis 13-4 | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | Saint Sinners | 17 Dust2 13-5 | 21 Ancient 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | BRUTE | 26 Anubis 8-13 | 18 Mirage 11-13 | 44 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Lavked | 16 Nuke 13-8 | 17 Dust2 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 14 Anubis 10-13 | 21 Nuke 11-13 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Fire Flux | 19 Nuke 13-10 | 18 Inferno 10-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Privateer | 13 Ancient 13-5 | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | G2 Ares | 26 Inferno 13-11 | 17 Dust2 13-2 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | mellren | 9 Dust2 4-13 | 23 Ancient 13-11 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Enjoy | 15 Anubis 10-13 | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Bushido Wildcats | 21 Dust2 13-9 | 19 Anubis 13-5 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | los kogutos | 25 Nuke 16-14 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 42 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | GenOne | 18 Ancient 9-13 | 25 Inferno 16-12 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Black Phoenix | 7 Dust2 4-13 | 16 Anubis 8-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | megoshort | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 19 Anubis 16-13 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | benched gods | 7 Anubis 3-13 | 19 Dust2 13-9 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Bebop | 10 Anubis 13-6 | 21 Nuke 16-12 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































