KillsLean
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.24
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Edge
-2.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.71
Hit
63.5%
EV+
+10.0%
Edge
-1.8
L10
70%

AWPer
meyern
9z vs Vitality
LEAN · UNDER 10.5
BEST UNDER · PP 10.5PP10.5UD9.5
≈ L5 9.6 · L20 9.4LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.42
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
1/1 hit · avg 6 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 2-13 · Nuke 6-13 · L
6
Under 10.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.4
13/20 hit at 10.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm meyern is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 15.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 36.2% HS): below 0.716 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.71
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
63.5%
EV+
+10.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
10.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
63.5%
+2.2 →
Learned
65.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 77.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (8.33) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.5 headshots vs line 9.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 36%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 8.5 against a 9.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
- • Model 8.71 vs line 10.5 → -1.79 (-17.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.05
HS/Map
4.72
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.56
ADR
57.2
KAST
75.6%
HS%
36.2%
Multi-kill
11.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)3.7 · KPR 0.534 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)4.6 · KPR 0.616 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.716
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.35
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.48%
Final projected kills23
× realistic HS% (36.2%)8.71
Vitality gives up (100 series)-6.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 77.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.6%
~7 HS · 34r87.2%
Normal44.9%
~9 HS · 42r69.6%
Close maps10.3%
~9 HS · 43r66.6%
Overtime12.2%
~11 HS · 49r50.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 15.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 16% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.1r
+17% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 8.5 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 45.2% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 56.7% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 63.5% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 66.4% | |
| 12.5 Under | 67.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 9→10.5+1.5
- Back on board9 → 10.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled9Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- First seen9Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
42.8%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
34.1%
K/D
1.35
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.6
HS%
25.8%
K/D
1
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
37.3%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.56
HS%
28.1%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 4 Cache 11-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 3 Nuke 13-1 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 3 Nuke 7-13 | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 3 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 5 Nuke 13-10 | 5 Mirage 13-2 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 1 Dust2 3-13 | 3 Mirage 11-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 1 Ancient 8-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 2 Nuke 7-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 6 Cache 13-3 | 6 Nuke 13-4 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 5 Nuke 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 8 Ancient 17-19 | 1 Dust2 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 2 Dust2 6-13 | 6 Mirage 16-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 2 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Inferno 13-10 | 4 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 10 Inferno 17-19 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 9 Mirage 16-13 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-04 | Alliance | 5 Dust2 14-16 | 3 Inferno 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | OT |







































































































































































