KillsBetter playLean
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.57
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.8%
Edge
-2.9
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.79
Hit
40.2%
EV+
-30.3%
Edge
-0.7
L10
40%

Rifler
ropz
Vitality vs 9z
RISK · UNDER 15.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP15.5UD15.5
▼ L5 14.4 · L20 16.0Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.31
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/1 hit · avg 8 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 13-2 · Nuke 13-6 · W
8
Under 15.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16
8/20 hit at 15.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ropz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 84.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 54.1% HS): below 0.766 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.79
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
40.2%
EV+
-30.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.4
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
40.2%
-1.8 →
Learned
38.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.96) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.3 headshots vs line 15.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 54%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.3 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.79 vs line 15.5 → -0.71 (-4.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.4 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.78
HS/Map
8
K/D
1.23
KPR
0.72
ADR
75
KAST
77.5%
HS%
54.1%
Multi-kill
17.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.5 · KPR 0.773 · 18.3r
Map 2 (Anubis)7.5 · KPR 0.743 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.766
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.34
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.45%
Final projected kills27.65
× realistic HS% (54.1%)14.79
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 56.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps39.2%
~13 HS · 32r80.3%
Normal34.1%
~16 HS · 41r46.5%
Close maps18.9%
~16 HS · 40r48%
Overtime7.8%
~18 HS · 46r27.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 84.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
18.3r
-1% KPR here
M2 Anubis
19.1r
-4% KPR here
Total
37.4r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)39.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 15.3 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 29.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 34.7% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 40.2% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 47.5% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 56.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
50.7%
K/D
1.31
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
54%
K/D
1.14
Cache
7 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.78
HS%
50.9%
K/D
1.35
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.76
HS%
61%
K/D
1.51
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.91
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.82
HS%
67.2%
K/D
1.22
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 4 Cache 13-8 | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 8 Inferno 13-2 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 10 Anubis 9-13 | 8 Dust2 13-4 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 7 Anubis 13-5 | 3 Nuke 5-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 6 Dust2 13-1 | 4 Cache 13-5 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 11 Cache 13-5 | 10 Anubis 13-8 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Mirage 7-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 8 Nuke 16-14 | 14 Mirage 9-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 4 Dust2 13-2 | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 9 Cache 13-16 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 5 Anubis 11-13 | 13 Nuke 16-14 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Cache 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Lynn Vision | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |







































































































































































