KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
UNDER
Projection
32.18
Hit
37%
EV+
-35.9%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.96
Hit
38.8%
EV+
-32.9%
Edge
-0.0
L10
50%
#271Ranked 271 of 277 on the board

Rifler
dexter
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
RISK · UNDER 18
BEST UNDER · SL 18.5PP18SL18.5
▲ L5 21.4 · L20 16.2Risk · Edge -0.0 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 18 (Under)
L5
0%
0/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.27
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
0/1 hit · avg 22 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
22
Over 18 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.5
6/13 hit at 18
Online
13.3
6/6 hit at 18
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dexter is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 55.2% HS): below 0.801 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.96
Raw edge
-0.0
Cons. hit
38.8%
EV+
-32.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.7
Line
18
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
38.8%
-7.9 →
Learned
30.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 16-20
All players · Headshots
42.3%149 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.48) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.4 headshots vs line 18.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 55%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.4 against a 18.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.96 vs line 18 → -0.04 (-0.2%)
- • Form L5 0% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 40.7 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.68
HS/Map
8.11
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.74
ADR
84
KAST
71.9%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)9 · KPR 0.77 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.5 · KPR 0.731 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.801
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.6
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.42%
Final projected kills29.86
× realistic HS% (55.2%)17.96
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+5.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 18. Model: 50.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps39.8%
~15 HS · 34r73.5%
Normal36.7%
~19 HS · 44r34.6%
Close maps13%
~19 HS · 44r36.1%
Overtime10.5%
~22 HS · 50r18%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 74.0%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.6r
-3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19.1r
-8% KPR here
Total
40.7r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)39.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Under) · avg 17.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Under | 26% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 33.2% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 38.8% | OFFERED |
| 19 Under | 44.3% | below BE |
| 20 Under | 49.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 18→18no change
- First seen18Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1.06
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.65
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.91
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
43.6%
K/D
1
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.87
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.79
Cache
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
1.2
HS%
61.1%
K/D
2.57
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 13 Dust2 17-19 | 9 Inferno 9-13 | 22 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 10 Nuke 13-7 | 11 Cache 13-2 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-3 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Anubis 11-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 10 Inferno 16-19 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 4 Dust2 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 5 Inferno 2-13 | 8 Ancient 4-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 8 Ancient 13-4 | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Anubis 10-13 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-18 | FlyQuest | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Nuke 1-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Rooster | 10 Nuke 13-0 | 3 Anubis 13-4 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Inferno 3-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-27 | SemperFi | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-16 | Lynn Vision | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 6 Nuke 10-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-14 | Kaleido | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 6 Ancient 13-16 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-05-13 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 6 Anubis 13-5 | 14 Dust2 17-19 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































