KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.6
Hit
52.1%
EV+
-9.8%
Edge
-1.9
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
21.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
20.82
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.8%
Edge
-0.7
L10
70%
#212Ranked 212 of 277 on the board

Rifler
KWERTZZ
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · UNDER 21.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP21.5SL21.5
▲ L5 21.4 · L20 20.5Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 21.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.42
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
18.8
3/4 hit at 21.5
Online · this match
20.9
9/15 hit at 21.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KWERTZZ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 21.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 60.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 21 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 70.3% HS): below 0.713 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
20.82
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
21.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.5%
-2.1 →
Learned
45.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 19.5-23.5
All players · Headshots
50%30 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.57) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.0 headshots vs line 21.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 70%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 20.0 against a 21.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 20.82 vs line 21.5 → -0.68 (-3.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.55
HS/Map
10.24
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.71
ADR
75.1
KAST
71.7%
HS%
70.3%
Multi-kill
19%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)10.4 · KPR 0.697 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Cache)10.2 · KPR 0.695 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.713
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.86
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.01%
Final projected kills29.26
× realistic HS% (70.3%)20.82
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 21.5. Model: 55% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.7%
~18 HS · 36r81.6%
Normal52.2%
~22 HS · 45r49.4%
Close maps13.3%
~22 HS · 46r45.7%
Overtime5.8%
~25 HS · 52r25.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
21.7r
-2% KPR here
M2 Cache
21.2r
-2% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 21.5 (Under) · avg 20.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
21.5
Nearby lines
| 19.5 Under | 36.8% | below BE |
| 20.5 Under | 41.1% | below BE |
| 21.5 Under | 47.5% | OFFERED |
| 22.5 Under | 51.7% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 57.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 21.5
Line movement
first 21.5→21.5no change
- First seen21.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
68.3%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
76.1%
K/D
1.14
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
65.3%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.99
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.67
HS%
71.7%
K/D
0.94
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.5
HS%
77.8%
K/D
0.6
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
1.33
HS%
80%
K/D
2.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 8 Cache 6-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Cache 7-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 2 Cache 3-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 16 Mirage 13-6 | 14 Cache 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 9 Mirage 13-5 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 13 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Cache 13-4 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 7 Inferno 13-1 | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 15 Ancient 16-14 | 19 Dust2 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 8 Cache 13-8 | 2 Mirage 6-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Inferno 13-9 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 11 Mirage 12-16 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 10 Cache 13-8 | 11 Mirage 13-4 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 16 Anubis 13-2 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | INOX Division | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Inferno 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































