KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.74
Hit
33.9%
EV+
-41.3%
Edge
-0.3
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.16
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Edge
-1.3
L10
50%

Rifler
dumau
Legacy vs Nemiga
RISK · UNDER 15.5
BEST UNDER · UD 16.5PP15.5UD16.5
▼ L5 14.4 · L20 15.1Risk · Edge -1.3 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.48
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.1
11/20 hit at 15.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dumau is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 48% HS): below 0.753 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.16
Raw edge
-1.3
Cons. hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Rating
1.3/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.7%
-8.6 →
Learned
40.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.05) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.1 headshots vs line 15.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 48%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.1 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.16 vs line 15.5 → -1.34 (-8.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.72
HS/Map
7.55
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.7
ADR
82
KAST
74.3%
HS%
48%
Multi-kill
17.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.4 · KPR 0.723 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.7 · KPR 0.65 · 21.5r
Required KPR to clear0.753
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.45
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.57%
Final projected kills29.28
× realistic HS% (48%)14.16
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 65% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.2%
~12 HS · 36r84.7%
Normal53.1%
~14 HS · 43r64.5%
Close maps18.9%
~15 HS · 46r55.3%
Overtime7.8%
~17 HS · 52r36.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
21.4r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.5r
-8% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 15.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 29.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 40.1% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 48.7% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 58.1% | |
| 17.5 Under | 62.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15→15.5+0.5
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board15 → 15.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled15Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board15 → 15Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled15Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen15Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
45.9%
K/D
0.92
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
40.8%
K/D
1.28
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.02
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.71
HS%
56.1%
K/D
0.97
Cache
2 maps
Kills
20
KPR
1
HS%
42.5%
K/D
1.82
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 6 Nuke 13-16 | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-10 | 7 Inferno 5-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 4 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Mirage 16-14 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 8 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 3 Ancient 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 6 Ancient 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Ancient 11-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 10 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 10 Nuke 14-16 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 9 Inferno 13-9 | 6 Ancient 13-2 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 8 Nuke 13-11 | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 16 | W | Over ✗ |







































































































































































