KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.49
Hit
44.3%
EV+
-23.2%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%
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Rifler
Dem0N
FUT vs TYLOO
RISK · UNDER 32
BEST UNDER · PP 32PP32UD30.5
▲ L5 31.8 · L20 29.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 32 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.39
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
1/1 hit · avg 31 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Nuke 13-9 · Ancient 13-6 · W
31
Under 32 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
29.8
11/18 hit at 32
Online · this match
27
2/2 hit at 32
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dem0n is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 31 kills or fewer: below 0.739 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
31.49
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
44.3%
EV+
-23.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.3
Line
32
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
44.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
53%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 30-34
All players · Kills
43.1%144 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.35) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.1 kills vs line 30.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 67%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 33.1 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.49 vs line 32 → -0.51 (-1.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.3 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.78
HS/Map
9.93
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.75
ADR
78.1
KAST
79.2%
HS%
67.2%
Multi-kill
16.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15.7 · KPR 0.756 · 20.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.7 · KPR 0.698 · 22.5r
Required KPR to clear0.739
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.43
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.24%
Final projected kills31.35
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-7.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 32. Model: 53.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.8%
~26 kills · 36r83.2%
Normal59.7%
~32 kills · 43r50.7%
Close maps14.7%
~34 kills · 46r36.6%
Overtime7.8%
~38 kills · 52r14.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
20.8r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.5r
-7% KPR here
Total
43.3r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32 (Under) · avg 33.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
32
Nearby lines
| 30 Under | 32.9% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 36.6% | below BE |
| 32 Under | 44.3% | OFFERED |
| 33 Under | 48% | below BE |
| 34 Under | 53.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 30.5→32+1.5
- Back on board30.5 → 32Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
69%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
68.5%
K/D
0.95
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
67.7%
K/D
1.12
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
63%
K/D
1.24
Overpass
5 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.59
HS%
62%
K/D
0.79
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.75
HS%
72.9%
K/D
1.23
Cache
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 20 Nuke 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-6 | 31 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 12 Anubis 7-13 | 15 Dust2 8-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 23 Mirage 13-9 | 22 Nuke 13-6 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 13 Dust2 10-13 | 10 Anubis 13-3 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 19 Dust2 11-13 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 13 Cache 13-10 | 22 Anubis 13-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 10 Nuke 6-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 23 Dust2 16-13 | 11 Ancient 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 28 Ancient 9-13 | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 43 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 14 Ancient 13-6 | 17 Nuke 12-16 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 16 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 18 Ancient 13-3 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 17 Ancient 13-11 | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 18 Dust2 10-13 | 19 Mirage 13-9 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 12 Overpass 5-13 | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 17 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Overpass 2-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 17 Anubis 13-11 | 12 Overpass 7-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | B8 | 17 Ancient 7-13 | 18 Overpass 11-13 | 35 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-12 | paiN | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 3 Overpass 3-5 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































