HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.15
Hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.7%
Edge
-1.4
L10
60%
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AWPer
brutmonster
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 10.5
≈ L5 10.4 · L20 10.1Risk · Edge -1.3 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.58
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
1/1 hit · avg 5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-7 · Dust2 14-16 · Split
5
Under 10.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
10.1
10/20 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm brutmonster is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 34.9% HS): below 0.764 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.15
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
39.4
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.6%
+1.8 →
Learned
57.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (8.61) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.3 headshots vs line 10.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 35%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 10.3 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.15 vs line 10.5 → -1.35 (-12.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.45
HS/Map
5.05
K/D
1.14
KPR
0.69
ADR
71.3
KAST
74.1%
HS%
34.9%
Multi-kill
17.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)4.4 · KPR 0.623 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Mirage)4.2 · KPR 0.644 · 18.8r
Required KPR to clear0.764
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.04%
Final projected kills24.68
× realistic HS% (34.9%)9.15
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 64.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~8 HS · 33r81.9%
Normal41.5%
~9 HS · 40r66.5%
Close maps29.4%
~10 HS · 42r60.7%
Overtime5.6%
~11 HS · 48r45.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 38% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Cache
20.6r
-5% KPR here
M2 Mirage
18.8r
-1% KPR here
Total
39.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 10.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 36.7% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 45.3% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 55.6% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 60.3% | |
| 12.5 Under | 63.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→offno change
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 05:06 PM
- Back on board10.5 → 10.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.65
HS%
42.6%
K/D
1.06
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.68
HS%
29.7%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.81
HS%
29.9%
K/D
1.32
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
37.9%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
34.2%
K/D
1
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
41.7%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 5 Cache 13-16 | 5 Nuke 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | FORZE Reload | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 6 Cache 11-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-1 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 3 Mirage 6-13 | 2 Cache 11-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Cache 13-4 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 6 Cache 13-10 | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 4 Nuke 9-13 | 3 Dust2 13-2 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Leo | 5 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 1 Mirage 13-2 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 2 Inferno 13-7 | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Cache 13-11 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Saint Sinners | 0 Inferno 0-1 | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 8 Cache 13-2 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 2 Inferno 13-7 | 3 Dust2 14-16 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 9 Cache 13-5 | 2 Dust2 13-6 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 7 Inferno 13-9 | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 3 Cache 13-8 | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Teletubisie | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 1 Mirage 5-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | UNiTY | 5 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ |









































































































































































