KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.61
Hit
53.7%
EV+
-7.0%
Edge
-1.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.99
Hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.7%
Edge
-1.0
L10
60%

Rifler
vision
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
RISK · UNDER 26.5
PP26.5
▼ L5 25.2 · L20 27.3Risk · Edge -1.9 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 26.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±5.39
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
0/1 hit · avg 27 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
27
Over 26.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
26.5
1/4 hit at 26.5
Online
27.5
9/16 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm vision is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.648 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.61
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
53.7%
EV+
-7.0%
Rating
5.1/10
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.7%
+5.3 →
Learned
59%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
44%273 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.35) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.5 kills vs line 26.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 57%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 25.5 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.61 vs line 26.5 → -1.89 (-7.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
7.8
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.62
ADR
72.3
KAST
70.6%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
12.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)12.5 · KPR 0.645 · 20r
Map 2 (Inferno)11.8 · KPR 0.581 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.648
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.04
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.74%
Final projected kills24.35
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26.5. Model: 63.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.4%
~21 kills · 35r88.4%
Normal28.8%
~27 kills · 45r49.1%
Close maps23%
~27 kills · 44r51%
Overtime7.8%
~30 kills · 50r26.2%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 26.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 26% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
20r
+10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Under) · avg 25.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Under | 43% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 47.5% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 53.7% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Under | 58.9% | |
| 28.5 Under | 62.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→26.5no change
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.3%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.06
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.72
HS%
62.2%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
55.8%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
59.6%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.83
HS%
34.5%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 17 Anubis 13-11 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 17 Inferno 13-3 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 13 Inferno 8-13 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 13 Anubis 10-13 | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 8 Inferno 8-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Rooster | 10 Anubis 6-13 | 20 Nuke 13-11 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Abyssal | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 21 Dust2 12-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 8 Ancient 4-13 | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 18 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Inferno 1-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-31 | Arcade | 12 Nuke 13-3 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 11 Nuke 5-13 | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Rooster | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 25 Nuke 19-15 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | LFO 8 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 18 Dust2 13-3 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 9 Ancient 13-1 | 14 Anubis 13-8 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-12 | Mindfreak | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-11 | Abyssal | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 8 Anubis 0-1 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Mindfreak | 22 Nuke 13-10 | 13 Anubis 13-4 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Abyssal | 15 Mirage 13-0 | 20 Dust2 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Time Waves | 23 Inferno 19-17 | 11 Nuke 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | Ding Cuts | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Nuke 13-1 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































