KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.94
Hit
58.1%
EV+
+0.6%
Edge
-3.6
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.93
Hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.7%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%

Rifler
KusMe
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 15.5
≈ L5 16.0 · L20 15.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.9
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.4
10/20 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KusMe is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 55% HS): below 0.74 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.93
Raw edge
-1.6
Cons. hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.7%
Rating
2.9/10
Exp. rounds
38.1
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.7%
+4.9 →
Learned
57.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.05) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.6 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 55%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 15.6 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.93 vs line 15.5 → -1.57 (-10.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 38.1 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14
HS/Map
7.7
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.68
ADR
74
KAST
75.2%
HS%
55%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.2 · KPR 0.595 · 19r
Map 2 (Cache)6.9 · KPR 0.661 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.74
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.93
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.87%
Final projected kills23.72
× realistic HS% (55%)13.93
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 62.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~12 HS · 32r81.8%
Normal57.6%
~14 HS · 39r63%
Close maps10.5%
~15 HS · 41r57.7%
Overtime7.8%
~17 HS · 47r40.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
19r
-6% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.1r
+4% KPR here
Total
38.1r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 15.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 41.1% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 46% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 52.7% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 58.5% | |
| 17.5 Under | 62.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.2%
K/D
0.99
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.29
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.78
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.58
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.86
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.53
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.85
HS%
55%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Cache 4-13 | 16 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 14 Mirage 19-16 | 8 Cache 13-5 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Cache 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 5 Cache 13-9 | 12 Anubis 16-13 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-0 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 3 Dust2 0-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Anubis 13-10 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 10 Nuke 13-10 | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 11 Cache 13-9 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 6 Mirage 9-13 | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 10 Dust2 13-3 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 7 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-18 | 300FPS | 15 Mirage 16-14 | 5 Cache 13-10 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | OT |







































































































































































