KillsBetter playLean
Line
25
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.46
Hit
59.9%
EV+
+3.7%
Edge
+2.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.25
Hit
58.7%
EV+
+1.7%
Edge
+0.8
L10
60%

Rifler · IGL
bLitz
The MongolZ vs Aurora
LEAN · OVER 25
BEST OVER · UD 24.5PP25UD24.5
≈ L5 27.8 · L20 28.1
Hit rates at 25 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±5.41
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
0/1 hit · avg 23 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 12-16 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
23
Under 25 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
27.9
11/18 hit at 25
Online · this match
29
2/2 hit at 25
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm bLitz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.594 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.46
Raw edge
+2.5
Cons. hit
59.9%
EV+
+3.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
25
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.9%
+0.4 →
Learned
60.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 23-27
All players · Kills
57.1%140 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.32) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.5 kills vs line 26.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 47%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 27.5 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 27.46 vs line 25 → +2.46 (9.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.03
HS/Map
6.6
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.67
ADR
79.7
KAST
73.9%
HS%
47.1%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)12.6 · KPR 0.616 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Nuke)14.8 · KPR 0.687 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.594
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.47
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.55%
Final projected kills27.32
Aurora gives up (91 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25. Model: 67.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~23 kills · 35r30.1%
Normal53.1%
~28 kills · 43r66.3%
Close maps12.5%
~29 kills · 45r75.2%
Overtime10%
~33 kills · 51r91.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
20.5r
-8% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.6r
+3% KPR here
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25 (Over) · avg 27.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
25
Nearby lines
| 23 Over | 64.6% | |
| 24 Over | 63.2% | |
| 25 Over | 59.9% | OFFERED |
| 26 Over | 56.6% | below BE |
| 27 Over | 52.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25
Line movement
first 26.5→25-1.5
- Back on board26.5 → 25Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
47%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.1%
K/D
1
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
37.9%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.03
Cache
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.59
HS%
45.7%
K/D
0.8
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.76
HS%
50%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 12-16 | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 8 Cache 4-13 | 13 Inferno 13-3 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 19 Ancient 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 11 Cache 8-13 | 11 Mirage 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 19 Inferno 13-8 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | 5star | 9 Inferno 9-13 | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | MIBR | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 19 Mirage 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Falcons | 9 Inferno 3-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | paiN | 22 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Natus Vincere | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | FaZe | 15 Nuke 12-16 | 18 Mirage 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Wildcard | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-24 | HEROIC | 14 Nuke 5-13 | 16 Cache 13-8 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 11 Overpass 8-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 16 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Ancient 13-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 14 Mirage 16-14 | 17 Overpass 13-3 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 19 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ |







































































































































































