KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.49
Hit
48.2%
EV+
-16.5%
Edge
-1.0
L10
40%
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Rifler
Kind0
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 24.5
≈ L5 24.0 · L20 24.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.92
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
0/1 hit · avg 31 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-7 · Dust2 14-16 · Split
31
Over 24.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
24.1
10/20 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Kind0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: below 0.588 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.49
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
48.2%
EV+
-16.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.2%
+3.6 →
Learned
51.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
41.3%138 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23.27) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.2 kills vs line 24.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 50%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 25.2 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.49 vs line 24.5 → -1.01 (-4.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.05
HS/Map
6
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.6
ADR
71.6
KAST
71.5%
HS%
49.8%
Multi-kill
12.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)11.6 · KPR 0.568 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)11.7 · KPR 0.562 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.588
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.22%
Final projected kills23.27
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 24.5. Model: 60.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.7%
~20 kills · 35r85.2%
Normal39.3%
~24 kills · 43r55.4%
Close maps29.4%
~25 kills · 45r46.5%
Overtime5.6%
~29 kills · 51r23.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 38% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Cache
20.6r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.1r
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 25.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Under | 34.1% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 42.2% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 48.2% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Under | 57.4% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 62.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→offno change
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 05:06 PM
- Back on board24.5 → 24.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
50.8%
K/D
1
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
51.2%
K/D
1
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
43.8%
K/D
0.76
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 15 Cache 13-16 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 25 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | FORZE Reload | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Cache 11-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Inferno 13-1 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Cache 11-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 14 Cache 13-4 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 10 Cache 13-10 | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 14 Nuke 9-13 | 15 Dust2 13-2 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Leo | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 19 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Mirage 13-2 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 11 Mirage 7-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Saint Sinners | 1 Inferno 0-1 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 15 Cache 13-2 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Dust2 14-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 10 Cache 13-5 | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 16 Cache 13-8 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 4 Inferno 5-13 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-16 | Teletubisie | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |









































































































































































